Episode 91
The Great IPO Boom: SpaceX, OpenAI and the Future of Investing
The stock market continues to push higher, but beneath the surface, investors are facing some increasingly difficult questions. Are markets becoming too concentrated? Are mega-cap technology companies becoming too dominant? And could a wave of blockbuster IPOs change investing forever?
Richard Taylor, Chartered Financial Planner and founder of Plan First Wealth, is joined by Brian Dunhill, founder of Dunhill Financial, for another episode of Macro Aggressions to unpack the latest developments shaping markets and investor sentiment.
From rising inflation and higher energy prices to the growing debate around interest rates, Richard and Brian explore why markets remain surprisingly resilient despite a backdrop of economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability.
The conversation also dives into what could become one of the biggest investing stories of the decade. With SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and several major fintech companies reportedly preparing for public listings, Richard and Brian discuss what these IPOs could mean for passive investors, market concentration and the future of the S&P 500 essential financial advice for any expat wealth audience watching their portfolios.
They also examine whether today’s markets are showing signs of a bubble, why retail investors have more influence than ever before, and how diversification can help investors navigate an increasingly concentrated market environment, the kind of perspective a seasoned international wealth advisor brings to cross border financial planning.
Finally, the episode explores a trend that directly impacts the Expat Wealth audience: the growing movement of Americans relocating overseas. Richard and Brian discuss the destinations attracting affluent Americans, the opportunities emerging across Europe and South America, and the cross border financial planning mistakes that can create costly problems later on, exactly why expat retirement planning and early advice for expats matters so much before you go.
Whether you’re concerned about inflation, curious about the next generation of IPOs, or planning your own move abroad, this episode offers practical insights into the forces shaping both markets and global mobility, with an expat wealth advisor‘s lens throughout.
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Expat Wealth is supported by Plan First Wealth. Plan First Wealth is a Registered Investment Advisor serving fellow expatriates and immigrants living across the US on matters such as retirement planning, investment management, tax planning and non-US asset management.
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Expat Wealth is affiliated with Plan First Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Plan First Wealth.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Plan First Wealth does not provide any tax and/or legal advice and strongly recommends that listeners seek their own advice in these areas.
ABOUT RICHARD:
Richard Taylor is a British expat, dual citizen (UK & US). Originally from Bolton, he now lives in Greenwich, CT, where Plan First Wealth has its head office.
As the firm’s leader, Richard launched Taylor & Taylor, now Plan First Wealth, and continues to fuel the firm’s growth. Richard is a Chartered Financial Planner (UK – CII) in addition to holding the IMC (CFA UK) and Series 65 (US – FINRA).
Connect with Richard on LinkedIn
TRANSCRIPT:
00:00:00.000 — 00:00:17.120 · Brian Dunhill
42% of the S&P 500 is made up of ten stocks. Once SpaceX, anthropic and OpenAI all IPO, if they all get get to be part of the S&P 500 next year, we’re looking at over 50% of the of the index being made up of by the top ten stocks.
00:00:17.280 — 00:00:30.360 · Richared Taylor
This market is like a it’s a gambling mindset. I think that’s what this by the dip is alive and well. And until we’ve seen the size of that and until we see that fading, I don’t think we’ll have, um, a crash.
00:00:30.400 — 00:01:06.800 · Brian Dunhill
I remember you used to have to have $1 million account if you wanted to get involved in in IPOs. So we’re looking at the complete opposite side. And um, what is it 30% of the IPO is going to be made up of by retail investors. If we take Graham Bell’s old theory, we could be looking at the rich. Just dumping off on the poor.
Is the overall stock market a bubble? No. The majority of companies are quite healthy and doing quite well. Um, are there places that are problematic? Absolutely. Um, are those problems amongst some of those biggest companies? I hope not.
00:01:08.440 — 00:01:53.200 · Richared Taylor
Welcome to Expat Wealth, a planned first wealth podcast dedicated to helping ambitious expatriates in America and Americans overseas thrive. I’m your host, Richard Taylor, and First Wealth is the business I founded and run today, and we work with a successful expatriates, immigrants, and internationally minded Americans to make the most of our opportunity and avoid the expat landmines.
First, a quick disclaimer while Pun First Wealth LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor, the views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views and positions of Thailand. First, wealth information presented is for educational purposes only.
Now, if you aren’t already receiving our emails, please go to our website.
00:01:55.480 — 00:02:27.890 · Richared Taylor
And sign up there. It’s free and you’ll be notified every time you drop a new episode and so much more. Okay, let’s get back to this week’s show. Welcome back to another episode of Macro Aggressions from Expat World. This is where my friend and protege, Brian Dunhill, and I get together and discuss what’s going on in the world from an investment perspective, and try and try and relate it back to a cross-border, um, a cross-border perspective.
Although, Brian, I don’t think I can do much more on on currency. There’s only so much FX I can talk about. It makes my head spin.
00:02:28.050 — 00:02:39.250 · Brian Dunhill
The FX markets are what is really moving the markets, but I’m starting to visualise us as being the two Muppets, the two old men and the Muppets, just kind of overlooking and being grumpy at the world right now.
00:02:39.290 — 00:02:41.210 · Richared Taylor
I’m approaching the end of the school year.
00:02:41.250 — 00:02:43.210 · Speaker 3
What are their names? Is one of them live in a dustbin?
00:02:43.250 — 00:02:47.530 · Brian Dunhill
Those are the. Those are the young guys. No, it’s Statler and Waldorf.
00:02:47.530 — 00:02:50.450 · Speaker 3
No idea what you’re talking about. Okay, although.
00:02:50.490 — 00:02:51.210 · Richared Taylor
I do I.
00:02:51.330 — 00:02:51.770 · Speaker 3
The.
00:02:52.050 — 00:03:03.050 · Richared Taylor
You. I think you hit on something with the Grinch. Grumpy old man. I’m approaching the end of the school year. We are just knackered. Absolutely knackered. Can’t wait for the school year. We’re on holiday in a couple of weeks. The moment it ends and I can’t wait.
00:03:03.090 — 00:03:03.810 · Brian Dunhill
Where are you off to?
00:03:03.930 — 00:03:06.770 · Richared Taylor
Dominican. Going back. We went last year. Yeah.
00:03:06.810 — 00:03:08.650 · Speaker 4
Very nice. Lovely. Oh.
00:03:09.210 — 00:03:09.450 · Brian Dunhill
You know.
00:03:09.490 — 00:03:10.650 · Speaker 4
I need to. I need to just.
00:03:10.690 — 00:03:37.449 · Richared Taylor
Dude, you spend half of your life sailing around the Mediterranean. You’re doing just fine. Um, listen, I’m disappointed you didn’t react to my protege comment, but we’ll skip on past that. Um, I also need to do a bit of housekeeping. I have something new I want to share with people. We now have a mailbox.
We have a mailbox. It’s called expat Wealth. At first. Welcome. I don’t know why I had to look at that on my post-it note, because arguably I should be able to retain that information. Anyway. We have a mailbox. Expat wealth at
00:03:38.450 — 00:04:09.450 · Richared Taylor
G’s, expat wealth at Plan First. Welcome. If anyone has any questions, be that, um, you’re Britain, America, be that Americans looking to go to Europe, be that, you know, other nationalities in a in America or leaving America. Uh, email us your questions. I’ll either answer them myself, Brian will answer them or I’ll bring someone else in.
If I don’t have the answers, and we will start answering questions as we go along. So expat wealth at Plan First emails your questions and we will do our best to answer them.
00:04:09.450 — 00:04:14.290 · Brian Dunhill
In other words, nobody can complain about what we talk about on here anymore because yes.
00:04:14.610 — 00:04:20.049 · Richared Taylor
Exactly that. I hadn’t thought of it like that, but yeah, exactly that. Um, so what are we going to talk about?
00:04:20.090 — 00:04:35.010 · Brian Dunhill
Oh, we’ve got a mix of, uh, events going on right now. We talked a little bit about, um, our new fed chairman. Um, he’s got some changes going on right now, uh, especially with, uh, with inflation coming in quite hot this last month.
00:04:35.050 — 00:04:37.090 · Richared Taylor
4.2. He said, yeah.
00:04:37.170 — 00:04:38.770 · Brian Dunhill
It feels like a big number.
00:04:38.810 — 00:04:39.450 · Richared Taylor
It does.
00:04:39.490 — 00:04:42.690 · Brian Dunhill
But 100 year average 4% is the average.
00:04:42.690 — 00:04:44.930 · Richared Taylor
So it’s 100 year average 4%.
00:04:44.970 — 00:04:49.410 · Brian Dunhill
A hundred year average is 4%. If you take out the 1970s you get close.
00:04:49.410 — 00:05:01.260 · Richared Taylor
3% feels much more reasonable. And the ultimate the target is two, right. So that’s over double the target. And given what we’re used to in the past 20 years, that does that does feel pretty hot.
00:05:01.260 — 00:05:12.140 · Brian Dunhill
But it brings back some of this PTSD that I have from 2021 of the word transitory. Do you remember the word transitory?
00:05:12.420 — 00:05:13.580 · Richared Taylor
I do, I do.
00:05:13.620 — 00:05:43.900 · Brian Dunhill
Thrown at us time and time again. And and this is what they most of it is identified as being associated to oil prices and gasoline prices. Um, JP Morgan had a great piece. I don’t know if you if you watched their economic updates, uh, where it was associating the different demographics of society and the poorest 20%, 17% of their outlay, extra outlay on inflation is due to gasoline.
00:05:43.900 — 00:05:44.660 · Speaker 4
Prices.
00:05:44.860 — 00:05:45.380 · Brian Dunhill
Gasoline.
00:05:45.380 — 00:05:46.100 · Speaker 4
Electricity.
00:05:46.140 — 00:06:10.900 · Brian Dunhill
Natural gases, um, the affluent, the top 20%. It’s only 2.7%. So all this talk about it being a k economy, i.e. the rich doing great or doing horribly. These are the driving factors, um, when essentially 17% of of your outlay is going towards electricity, natural gas and gasoline, that can destroy your budget.
00:06:10.940 — 00:06:13.060 · Richared Taylor
But I don’t see any end in sight for this to you.
00:06:13.660 — 00:06:20.060 · Brian Dunhill
It doesn’t seem like I can’t figure out which day where a piece and which they were just they.
00:06:20.220 — 00:06:28.740 · Richared Taylor
Just put out nonsense to try and move the markets. But I mean, it seems Trump has lost all appetite for this, but that doesn’t mean it’s good. That doesn’t mean the end is in sight.
00:06:28.980 — 00:06:34.940 · Brian Dunhill
Well, you know, he’s got to go watch the basketball games. You know, he’s got to take some time off for himself, right? You get a vacation, I get a vacation.
00:06:35.180 — 00:06:37.300 · Richared Taylor
Get a vacation. Welcome in New York, didn’t they?
00:06:38.340 — 00:06:40.700 · Brian Dunhill
Oh, I thought those were boos. Oh.
00:06:44.740 — 00:06:45.220 · Brian Dunhill
No,
00:06:46.260 — 00:07:09.260 · Brian Dunhill
this thing is not going to be resolved anytime soon. It’s the question of whether the supplies dwindle, um, faster than than they’re able to get things redistributed as needed. Uh, so it’s what’s going to happen with energy prices and, um, naturally, demand is going to diminish if prices stay elevated for long periods of times.
Yeah.
00:07:10.420 — 00:07:52.750 · Richared Taylor
I just don’t see. I mean, look, inflation’s up primarily because of the gas and and that and then that touches everything. And I just don’t see this subsiding anytime soon. And then you’ve got the um we had this massive wobble on Friday. Part of that is due I think this hot this great jobs report came out. Um, which is on the Facebook.
Great news. Right. The American economy just continues to just. I mean, this economy is quite something. Anyway, we got this great jobs report, and I think then the market thinks, oh, this is another reason why they’re gonna have to put up interest rates. Then everyone starts to panic about rising interest rates, which seems inevitable at this point.
00:07:52.790 — 00:07:58.230 · Brian Dunhill
It becomes one of those real questions of what appetite the Federal Reserve has for
00:07:59.870 — 00:08:26.750 · Brian Dunhill
the current status. Um, if if they’re going to try to beat down supply side inflation with higher interest rates, they might find that that’s impossible to do. Um, so the the analysts are really predicting that we’re going to get a rate hike before the end of the year. Um, the problem is we typically get those predictions at the beginning of the year, midway through the year, and then they change over the course of the year.
00:08:26.830 — 00:08:27.910 · Richared Taylor
So it’s such a mug’s game.
00:08:27.910 — 00:08:28.830 · Brian Dunhill
It’s kind of a.
00:08:28.830 — 00:08:31.270 · Speaker 5
Wait and see. Absolutely.
00:08:31.310 — 00:08:32.789 · Brian Dunhill
It’s whack a mole right now.
00:08:33.430 — 00:08:44.270 · Richared Taylor
And yet I find myself listening to all these different podcasts and reading all this new. I mean, I consume so much information about it, and, and and it’s so much of it’s pointless. So much of it.
00:08:45.550 — 00:09:06.590 · Richared Taylor
It’s so freeing. I mean, our philosophy is you get your asset allocation, right. And there are, you know, not completely static. Once you got your set location right, you stick with it. And it’s so freeing, right? You know, sometimes tactical changes are necessary. Yes, but but in general, being freed from this, like, need to respond to everything is it’s good for us.
It’s good for the clients.
00:09:06.790 — 00:09:07.230 · Speaker 5
I.
00:09:07.950 — 00:10:21.910 · Brian Dunhill
I, I agree with that. But, um, we are making some changes in our asset allocation right now in big ways because of the potential of rising interest rates. Um, rising interest rates means government bonds should be tossed out of our portfolios, especially longer term ones. Uh, you know, if you’re getting lower interest rates and we get rising interest rates, uh, the lower interest rates and a government bond versus a corporate bond versus a high yield bond means that the higher interest rate is going to affect you more so than it would in, in that higher interest rate.
Um, in other words, the delta between what the current interest rate is and what it would go to is going to be affected significantly more on a government bond than it would be on a corporate bond. So we’re making some switches from from those types of outlays. And that’s for example where we’ve we’ve we’ve been working with Poland to help them introduce their ETF for European high yield.
We wanted to get her out of some of those government bonds that we’ve had for years and get over to a little bit higher yielding, uh, allocations, which don’t get affected so much if we at higher interest rates. So some changes need to be made, some tweaks have to be made to the portfolio.
00:10:21.950 — 00:10:31.310 · Richared Taylor
We’ve talked about this before. Right. This is the um the it’s a US based ETF but it’s investing purely in European bonds.
00:10:31.350 — 00:11:27.200 · Brian Dunhill
Exactly. Um so Poland Capital introduced PCB. Um, and PCB came out last month as an ETF 40 high yield but good solid companies. Uh, um, fixed income, completely euro denominated, uh, less than a three year duration on it. So we don’t have to wait a long period of time for these things to come due. And, um, yet over a 5% yield.
So we have that natural currency in the euro, but it’s trading in the US so that we don’t have to worry about having a panic or buying each of those 40 issuances. We can buy it in whatever size instrument. And these are the types of things that we’re really trying to work with, the different the different providers to introduce more of these products.
For the retail clients.
00:11:27.200 — 00:11:46.000 · Richared Taylor
It’s great for European, European investors. Quick question why? Why do you think they can’t issue that in euros? Why there must be a facility where US collective investments, ETFs, mutual funds are they they they must have a facility where they don’t have to denominated in dollars.
00:11:46.000 — 00:11:58.880 · Brian Dunhill
I I’m taking a guess at this that, um, it’s an SEC ruling that, um, you would have to display everything, i.e. the prospectus in, in dollar terms, and therefore it would be traded in dollar terms.
00:11:58.920 — 00:12:00.680 · Speaker 6
I’m sure I’m sure that’s what I’m saying.
00:12:00.680 — 00:12:06.280 · Richared Taylor
But don’t you think that seems crazily restrictive for 2026?
00:12:07.920 — 00:12:49.800 · Brian Dunhill
Ah, if if we hadn’t had 15 years of dollar, dollar strength where essentially everybody was fine with having dollars. Um, I’d agree with you. Ten, 15 years from now, if we continue to have dollar weakness, I bet you there will be more pushes, for we want things denominated in external currencies. But the last 15 years prior to to Trump coming back in office and trying to to push the dollar down, everybody was in this situation where they were pro dollar.
Anybody that would have introduced a product like this would have had a slow bleed, because it would have showed up in dollars and it would have showed up as a loss on a monthly basis or an annual basis for those 15 years.
00:12:49.880 — 00:13:06.000 · Richared Taylor
Yeah, that makes sense. But it just seems crazy that because you might use its funds in dollars, pounds, um, uh, euros, but US funds are only in dollars and it just seems really restrictive. In 2026.
00:13:06.080 — 00:13:26.040 · Brian Dunhill
You’re slowly turning American. Um, you probably you probably know the euro rate when you come to Europe. You probably know the pound. Well, maybe a little closer, because you’ve got a lot of UK clients that have UK statements. Um, but you don’t pay attention to it when you’re in the US. It’s such a big market.
00:13:26.080 — 00:14:14.970 · Richared Taylor
Yeah, that’s very true. Yeah. Okay. All right. So that’s good. So that’s good for European. Your Americans in Europe looking to get exposure to, uh, corporate bonds, uh, without getting everything either magnified or, you know, destroyed by currency fluctuations, which is what happens with bonds.
Um, uh, either goes either works in your favour or it completely takes away the return. And now you can, uh, you can invest in, in a, in a, uh, in a, in a US fund. That’s not a fake. And if anyone is, just know to avoid them as an American. Um. Great. So Friday we had a bit of a we had a bit of a sell off on Friday, a bit of a sell off.
We had, uh, quite, quite a significant sell off, but like. Yeah, on the back of quite a, quite a run, you know.
00:14:15.770 — 00:14:26.010 · Brian Dunhill
We had nine days in a row that the markets were up. So to have one down out of, out of nine up um isn’t bad. We used to say that every, every
00:14:27.210 — 00:14:36.010 · Brian Dunhill
30% of the time the market should go down. So if 10% of the time the market makes a bigger pullback, I’m saying the momentum is still pushing us up.
00:14:36.050 — 00:14:36.530 · Speaker 6
I mean.
00:14:36.570 — 00:14:51.169 · Richared Taylor
I mean I mean it’s awful. We went back to A levels not seen since May. How awful in early June to go back to levels not seen since May. And I sent you this article for the Wall Street Journal. Yeah, it’s just crazy how
00:14:52.210 — 00:15:10.010 · Richared Taylor
I hate the entitlement we all seem to have. Ta ta ta in stock market returns. We want all the upside and the moment things. I won’t even call it. I mean, it was absolutely a wobble, but the moment you get any pullback, everyone starts shrieking and losing their minds. I just I find it crazy.
00:15:10.410 — 00:15:10.770 · Brian Dunhill
Is it.
00:15:10.770 — 00:15:11.250 · Speaker 5
Everyone.
00:15:11.250 — 00:15:12.690 · Brian Dunhill
Or is it just the newspapers they’re.
00:15:12.690 — 00:15:13.250 · Speaker 6
Trying to sell?
00:15:13.490 — 00:15:14.330 · Richared Taylor
Good. Um.
00:15:15.210 — 00:15:16.130 · Speaker 5
Did you have any actual.
00:15:16.130 — 00:15:17.050 · Brian Dunhill
Clients that called you up.
00:15:17.050 — 00:15:17.810 · Speaker 6
And single.
00:15:17.810 — 00:15:42.530 · Richared Taylor
One? Uh, but I also had a friend of mine who’s also a financial advisor. He he sent me an example of what he said. It was sent out to his clients over the weekend, and it was great, right? It was what he put together was legit, really great. But I was also struck by like, why? And I think it was just I think it was just purely being proactive.
But I still was like, why we’ve had one day like, is it, is it, are we there already? Are we like.
00:15:43.650 — 00:15:44.010 · Speaker 5
No.
00:15:44.010 — 00:15:56.490 · Brian Dunhill
I think the, the old expression was the economist predict 11 out of the last ten recessions. And so it’s easier to. What’s your line about? Um, it’s, uh, you sound very sound smart.
00:15:56.530 — 00:15:57.690 · Speaker 6
And make money.
00:15:57.930 — 00:15:58.450 · Richared Taylor
Making money.
00:15:58.490 — 00:15:59.090 · Speaker 6
Yeah.
00:15:59.330 — 00:16:07.050 · Brian Dunhill
Yeah. So. And it’s true, you know, it’s so easy to say, hey, everything’s going to fall apart. The markets are going to, you know, drop, etc., etc..
00:16:07.090 — 00:16:07.690 · Speaker 6
Okay. Right, right.
00:16:07.890 — 00:16:12.570 · Speaker 5
You p ratios are ridiculous now okay.
00:16:12.570 — 00:16:18.249 · Brian Dunhill
All those things are true. But at the same time, these companies have the propensity to grow a lot faster than
00:16:19.450 — 00:16:58.580 · Brian Dunhill
what we’ve historically seen in the past. And and therefore there’s great opportunities out there. Not all of them are going to win. Um, you know, when we look at doesn’t matter if we’re in the AI space, we’re going to have some winners, we’re going to have some losers in the pharmaceutical space. We’ve always seen that.
You know, recently we’ve really seen that. And um, so with these kinds of shifts, we know we have to play with diversification. We need to have that free lunch of being diversified. But the old pricing mechanisms are not going to be exact. When you have potential earnings growth that are going at a much faster pace than we’ve had.
00:16:58.620 — 00:16:59.260 · Speaker 6
In the past.
00:16:59.380 — 00:17:18.020 · Richared Taylor
And when this goes out, the IPO will already happened. But we have SpaceX’s IPO on Friday. We have anthropic who have filed for an IPO. We have ChatGPT who have just are OpenAI, who own ChatGPT have just filed indicating they’re going to IPO. I mean, this is massive.
00:17:18.540 — 00:18:13.700 · Brian Dunhill
Oh, and it doesn’t even just stop there. You know, there’s there’s indications that we’re going to get some of the big fintechs like Revolut or Plaid Stripe coming out. Um, and in a funny way, we’re not even looking at more IPOs going out than last year. They’re just bigger IPOs. So it’s it’s not an overwhelming market.
It’s just the size of them are astronomical. And they could shift some of our indexes 100%. And that’s where we’re going to see some some bouncing about. Um, because what the graphic we were looking at was, if all of a sudden the indexes have to pull out, put in the amount in space that’s indicated right now, 7% of that 75 billion is just going to go to passive investors.
We’re not even going to decide to buy that. We’re just going to accidentally end up in space.
00:18:15.300 — 00:18:17.580 · Brian Dunhill
Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Well.
00:18:17.900 — 00:18:35.620 · Richared Taylor
We’ll see that, right? What do you what do you think? The valuation is insane. I mean, they’ve brought it down a little bit. Well, a little bit. A few hundred billion. Um, but, uh, the valuation of that company is, um, ambitious. But then also, it is quite remarkable what it does, although
00:18:36.940 — 00:18:44.740 · Richared Taylor
it’s kind of like a Frankenstein. Right? There’s a couple of Fantastic parts to the business. And then there’s, uh, XAI, which is a bit of a monstrosity.
00:18:45.700 — 00:19:31.140 · Brian Dunhill
Well, absolutely. And then what happens if they merge it with Tesla, which is kind of one of those rumours which we have to remember, that is probably associated with that trillion dollar pay package that Elon Musk was offered by his brother and the rest of the board. Um, if, uh, if he got it to a certain number of trillion dollars, then essentially he would get $1 trillion bonus.
Um, this would be the fast way to do so. So if you merge that all of a sudden you have potentially the conglomerate effect. And we remember what that did to GE. We remember what that did to Citigroup. Um it brought down valuation significantly. So we might go from an extremely high p ratio. Um, because it’s some great ideas to a very low p e ratio because.
00:19:31.620 — 00:19:32.220 · Speaker 6
It’s a it.
00:19:32.220 — 00:19:53.860 · Richared Taylor
Brings it down to you. I think they say that when you have these conglomerates, the valuation force, basically the lowest common denominator. You know the worst. The worst part of the the the jigsaw. So yeah, that could absolutely happen. Do you think? Do you think this is a sign? This is a sign of the bubble like that.
Where are these massive IPOs are chomping at the bit to come out?
00:19:55.380 — 00:20:52.190 · Brian Dunhill
Well there’s there’s definitely been parallels made to kind of Graham Bell’s theories of uh, of the odd lots theory. You know, whatever the small guys are doing, do the opposite. Um, if the big institutions that own and, and the mass affluent have, uh, want to get out of these things, and yet what fidelity.
They’re only requiring $2,000 in your account to get in on the space IPO. Um, you know, some of the other platforms, it’s even lower. I think Robinhood, it’s $1,000 or something like that. Um, it used to be, I remember you used to have to have $1 million account if you wanted to get involved in, in IPOs. So we’re looking at the complete opposite side.
And um, what is it? 30% of the IPO is going to be made up of by retail investors. Um, therefore, if we take Graham Bell’s old theory, we could be looking at the rich just dumping off on the poor,
00:20:53.310 — 00:20:54.790 · Brian Dunhill
not the poor, but.
00:20:54.950 — 00:20:56.030 · Richared Taylor
The democratisation.
00:20:56.070 — 00:20:56.550 · Brian Dunhill
Everyman.
00:20:56.590 — 00:21:24.430 · Richared Taylor
The darker, the democratisation of of investing in the last few years with Robin Hood and the rest has been this market is like a it’s a gambling mindset. I think that’s why this buy the dip is alive and well. And until we’ve seen the size of that fading, I don’t think we’ll have, um, a crash. Although who knows what will happen.
But but the, the animal spirits, um, the gambling mentality, the retail, the retail investors have got power now.
00:21:24.710 — 00:22:24.030 · Brian Dunhill
Absolutely. I mean, they become meme stocks when we think of GameStop. You know, they’re back in the news because they want to buy eBay. Um, eBay has a valuation that’s however many times above GameStop’s valuation. They’ve said no, but, um, there’s these huge opportunities in the marketplace that would never have been present in normal times.
Um, whether that’s good or bad, that that could be debated all day long. But right now, we’re in a marketplace where I’m trying to actually reduce some of my exposure to some of the craziness, because it goes back to how do we get diversification on our side. You know, 42% of the S&P 500 is made up of ten stocks, one space anthropic and um, uh, and open AI all IPO.
If they all get get to be part of the S&P 500 next year. We’re looking at over 50% of the of the index being made up of by the top ten stocks.
00:22:25.150 — 00:23:03.750 · Brian Dunhill
That’s not diversification. So we have to look at strategies to to get that better aligned. Whether that be using a bigger universe, whether that be equal weighting it. We’re going towards more of a mix of value, i.e. we’re buying value stocks just to get back to 50/50, because the S&P 555% growth stocks right now, we’re not picking aside.
We’re just saying half the time growth does better. Half the time value does better. Growth has done better recently. So we just buy a little bit more value. Again not overthinking it. Just trying to basically keep towards rules that have protected portfolios for the long term.
00:23:04.390 — 00:23:05.630 · Richared Taylor
Do you think we’re in a bubble?
00:23:07.670 — 00:23:08.190 · Speaker 6
Um.
00:23:10.550 — 00:24:54.560 · Brian Dunhill
Why do I have Don ho stuck in my head when you bring that up? Tiny bubbles. Tiny bubbles. There’s always bubbles around. The question is, what is the bubble and how is it going to affect the rest of the marketplace? Um, is the overall stock market a bubble? No. The majority of companies are quite healthy and doing quite well.
Um, are there places that are problematic? Absolutely. Uh, are those problems amongst some of those biggest companies? I hope not, because that would be a scary aspect. Um, when when Berkshire Hathaway makes a huge investment in a housing company like they did, was it last week or the week before? I can’t remember which week it was.
Um, but essentially when they’re buying a housing company, I’m thinking they’re pretty confident in the valuation of where the US economy is because housing is kind of our core. Um, and so therefore those guys are the value players. And I’m going to I’m going to sit there and say, okay, they like the valuation of housing right now because it’s underinvested and therefore there’s an opportunity there to, to to make some cash.
Um, when it comes to the AI aspect and things, are there things that are ridiculously priced? Absolutely. Which ones they are. I have no clue. So therefore again, I’m just going to lean back on diversification and not getting too greedy. You know, we manage people’s greed and fear and greed. And that’s what I’m going to try to place.
That is how do we make sure that we’re part of space. But it doesn’t become too big of a part of our portfolio to where it can hurt any part of our portfolio if it goes wrong.
00:24:54.560 — 00:25:52.040 · Richared Taylor
We manage people’s fear and greed. That’s exactly it. That’s exactly it. I’m excited to announce that Expat Wealth has its first sponsor, the Global Financial Planning Institute. The CFP exists to provide education, community tools, resources, and ongoing research for financial planners and other advanced financial professionals working with international and cross-border clients in the US and Americans abroad.
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00:25:55.400 — 00:26:13.760 · Richared Taylor
Institute. You will be glad you did and I hope to see you there soon. Let me ask you. Let me just change gears completely a second. Let’s ask you, what are you seeing in terms? What are you seeing in business at the moment? Not in terms of investment wise, but in terms of like movement. Are you seeing more people are moving?
More Americans are moving to Europe right now or the UK or both.
00:26:13.920 — 00:26:42.570 · Brian Dunhill
I think it’s a mass immigration all over the place. I was at a conference this morning of which it was mostly British financial advisors, and they were complaining that 16,000 affluent Brits have moved out of the UK because of the current Labour government increasing taxes? Or maybe just them getting to retirement age?
Um, but, um, then somebody astutely pointed out they’ve been replaced by obnoxious American sounding.
00:26:43.410 — 00:26:44.170 · Speaker 6
Individuals.
00:26:44.170 — 00:26:46.570 · Brian Dunhill
Of which I had to hang my head down and pretend.
00:26:46.650 — 00:26:47.730 · Speaker 6
Not to talk.
00:26:47.730 — 00:26:48.930 · Speaker 5
For the rest of the day.
00:26:49.690 — 00:26:53.650 · Speaker 6
I, uh, I am. They already know, right? They already know.
00:26:54.570 — 00:26:56.130 · Speaker 5
I know, I know.
00:26:56.170 — 00:26:59.610 · Brian Dunhill
All the speakers were wearing brown shoes, too, and I felt very comfortable. You know.
00:26:59.650 — 00:27:00.570 · Speaker 5
It was all Americans.
00:27:00.570 — 00:27:03.890 · Brian Dunhill
On the stage and all Brits out in the audience. It was wonderful.
00:27:04.010 — 00:27:05.050 · Speaker 6
Um, but.
00:27:05.090 — 00:27:17.850 · Brian Dunhill
Essentially, we are seeing that movement that that immigration move is definitely happening. Uh, I think this year there’s been some publications that, for the first time in a century, were actually seeing a decline in the population.
00:27:17.850 — 00:27:18.650 · Speaker 6
In the United States.
00:27:19.330 — 00:27:19.890 · Richared Taylor
I think.
00:27:19.890 — 00:27:20.330 · Speaker 6
That.
00:27:20.370 — 00:27:47.290 · Richared Taylor
That is so disturbing. I think, for everyone. Yeah. Look, I know there’s this whole thing about climate change and what how many people? All that stuff. Right? But from a purely economic prosperity lens, declining population is very, very, very bad. It bothers me so much that the mood is so anti immigration and which is going to hurt the people who are running against it and on their families in due course.
00:27:47.610 — 00:28:47.450 · Brian Dunhill
Well it really scares me when, when you think of the demographic that would be moving and some of the bills that are in the House potentially taking away our right to vote if we live abroad or our right to a passport if we live abroad. Um, that could be the best gerrymandering ever, ever accomplished in US history.
Uh, because essentially it wouldn’t be talking about 4951 anymore. We’d be talking about a much bigger gap. Um, so so we have to keep sight on what’s going on in Congress right now. I mean, everybody’s getting these movements of people, and it’s it’s it’s where they’re going And and the Americans are definitely moving over to Europe, but they’re also moving down to South America.
We were in Brazil a couple of months ago, and it was amazing that the populations that are going down there, um, you know, going all the way through Central America and such, uh, because it’s cheaper pricing, but you have cheaper.
00:28:47.490 — 00:28:48.490 · Speaker 6
It’s easier.
00:28:48.850 — 00:29:14.410 · Richared Taylor
I recently learned about this Mercosur area, which is like the European Union of South American, South American countries. Um, you can live in the right to live in all these different countries. Uh, it’s super interesting. So. Right. So is the American who moves to South America fundamentally different to the American who moves to Europe.
Like, are they they’re a different person to work with, to advise to to. No.
00:29:14.690 — 00:29:29.140 · Brian Dunhill
We don’t advise all that many in Central America or South America. So so I’m just getting to know those markets. But, um, it is completely a different crowd. Uh, we, we hear of a lot more of the fire mentality going.
00:29:29.140 — 00:29:29.500 · Speaker 6
Down to.
00:29:29.540 — 00:29:31.100 · Brian Dunhill
Central and South America, i.e..
00:29:31.540 — 00:29:32.020 · Speaker 6
Younger.
00:29:32.020 — 00:29:34.300 · Brian Dunhill
Individuals trying to retire, trying to.
00:29:34.340 — 00:29:35.180 · Speaker 6
Trying to enjoy.
00:29:35.180 — 00:29:35.820 · Brian Dunhill
Life.
00:29:36.020 — 00:29:36.260 · Speaker 6
Uh.
00:29:36.700 — 00:29:59.220 · Brian Dunhill
Earlier, um, you know, when when we go down to the south of France, it’s, you know, your typical retiree going down there just saying, hey, this will be a nice lifestyle. At least things will be simple. And the the medical facilities are wonderful. So I’m seeing different demographics, whether that’s the demographics overall or just happens to be the crowds that I’ve spoken to.
I can’t speak to that.
00:29:59.220 — 00:30:12.020 · Richared Taylor
Um, the crowd of fiercely independent. Are they, um, do they get down there and realise, okay, this is this gets more complicated. We need some help with this or do they want to they want to remain. They want to forge that path alone.
00:30:12.060 — 00:30:12.500 · Speaker 6
Uh.
00:30:12.900 — 00:30:20.740 · Brian Dunhill
I think a lot of the fire crowd like to forge the path alone. Um, just from a cost savings vantage point on,
00:30:22.420 — 00:30:24.100 · Brian Dunhill
you know, getting getting value.
00:30:24.180 — 00:30:42.140 · Richared Taylor
My experience in the cross-border world, though, is once you. Are you your pennywise pound foolish. You can save it. You can save a book by trying to go it alone. But there’s so many pitfalls associated with being an American abroad. There’s so many landmines to step on. It’s almost impossible to avoid them when you step on them.
They’re generally going to cost a whole lot more.
00:30:42.420 — 00:31:22.619 · Brian Dunhill
Oh, absolutely. And I mean the average, just the average American in America that is working with a financial advisor nets a return of 1.5% more than somebody that doesn’t have a financial advisor. And that can be said that, okay, little things like rebalancing, tax harvesting, um, but it can be bigger things like remembering to contribute to their IRAs, remembering to, to actually get net benefits like that and contributing more over the course of time.
So over the course of time, 1.5% after fees compounds quite nicely for
00:31:24.380 — 00:31:27.340 · Brian Dunhill
the client that has the same net worth. Um,
00:31:29.100 — 00:31:42.500 · Brian Dunhill
we net out our value in a very good way, but it’s different for each person. And I think it’s the perfect parallel to a personal trainer. You know, could you go in the gym and get the same results as you could with a personal trainer?
00:31:42.540 — 00:31:43.500 · Speaker 6
Absolutely. But you don’t.
00:31:43.500 — 00:31:44.780 · Brian Dunhill
But somebody that goes.
00:31:44.780 — 00:31:45.220 · Speaker 6
And see.
00:31:46.260 — 00:31:54.500 · Brian Dunhill
If I’m serious for something, I’m going to go get the personal trainer. Right. Um, on a regular basis, I don’t always need it.
00:31:54.500 — 00:33:05.710 · Richared Taylor
So it’s I just think I, you know, so that 1.5% figure. That’s great. I don’t know that we’ve got no way to quantify it, but that figure, I’m convinced, is much higher when cross-border situations are involved because you can help them. One, you can help them, uh, manage assets that otherwise just get abandoned and forgotten about for 20 odd years.
Um, but two, you can also help them avoid the landmines that take significant chunks, not just financial. What I found is that when when we will often I one thing I think about different about businesses. You will eye and tell me if I’m wrong here. A lot of the time you’ll work with someone who’s who’s newly arriving, right?
So they’re kind of like a blank slate. We will often work with people who have been here for ten, 20 years, and we will be the first one to diagnose some problems that have been festering for 10 or 20 years. And that that sounds like a negative, but it’s great because people have the opportunity to get out ahead of it and resolve it, and then move on with their lives rather than have it hanging over them.
But the sometimes the emotional toll that it takes on people to, to to clear up some of these, uh, some of these landmines, um, is significant. You know, it weighs on people.
00:33:05.990 — 00:33:26.270 · Brian Dunhill
Oh, absolutely. Because it takes it takes a long period of time to to sort them out. Um, and there’s a lot of decision making processes in the hole in the whole process of, um, deciding, okay, do I pull off the Band-Aid? Do I do it this over the course of years, etc., etc.? Psychologically, it’s hard to say.
I’ve done this for 20 years. Oh my goodness, now I have to fix it.
00:33:26.310 — 00:33:26.710 · Speaker 6
And I wasn’t.
00:33:26.710 — 00:33:53.870 · Richared Taylor
Trying to do anything wrong. There’s no malcontent here. It’s just, uh uh, it’s just a regular oversight. So. Yeah, I think it’s, uh. Well, it’s interesting to talk. I think I’m going to hear more and more about South America going forward. Argentina is coming out with an investment, uh, a new, uh, permanent resident buy investment scheme that can get you easier access to Spain and get you access to the rest of the Mercosur region, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador.
I think like Chile, like there’s a lot of there’s a lot to like about this.
00:33:53.870 — 00:34:08.909 · Brian Dunhill
I remember it was five years ago we started hearing about Asia. Um, now we’re starting to hear more about South and Central America. I bet you, you know, Africa is going to come along at some point in time. You know, we got our first call for Bulgaria a couple of weeks ago.
00:34:09.110 — 00:34:09.510 · Speaker 6
Yeah.
00:34:10.070 — 00:34:26.149 · Brian Dunhill
Now part of the European Union. All of a sudden it’s oh. Oh, I, I’ve never even looked into it. This is interesting. Um, but where there’s value, there’s going to be people jumping on those opportunities and real estate values in those areas. Yeah. So.
00:34:26.190 — 00:34:38.270 · Richared Taylor
And then the cycle continues. Locals got miffed like we’re seeing in Portugal right now, the rise of right wing anti-immigration. You know, and so we go on. Humans are going to human.
00:34:39.110 — 00:34:40.990 · Speaker 6
A cycle, a cycle.
00:34:41.149 — 00:34:41.310 · Brian Dunhill
A.
00:34:41.310 — 00:34:42.310 · Speaker 6
Constant, right?
00:34:42.350 — 00:34:45.389 · Richared Taylor
Brian, anything else to answer to our conversation today?
00:34:45.590 — 00:34:52.350 · Brian Dunhill
I think I think we should come back and do it next month and figure out all the new problems that are happening. Unless you’re just going to be on vacation.
00:34:52.429 — 00:34:52.710 · Speaker 6
No.
00:34:52.750 — 00:34:57.790 · Richared Taylor
I’ll be. I’ll be happy. I’ll make time for you, Brian. Always. Listen, I’m I’m I’m I’m.
00:34:58.990 — 00:35:16.830 · Richared Taylor
I continue to be quite bullish. You know, I think the we we have momentum. Um, things are going well. Obviously at some point there’s going to be a correction. There’s going to be a pullback. There always is. Um Friday was was was a was a blip. I don’t think it’s a start. I don’t think it’s the beginning of the end.
Um,
00:35:17.870 — 00:35:35.640 · Richared Taylor
uh I think these IPOs are big news. It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens after. After Fridays, we’ll be very interested to see what happens with space X, because, um, there’s a lot going on with that one. And I think people should, should, should remain excited about the future.
00:35:35.680 — 00:35:57.280 · Brian Dunhill
As the word goes, you got to be cautiously optimistic. You know, we’re always optimistic because that’s the, uh, that’s the rule of the game in these markets. You know, 70% of the time the market’s up. Um, but you have to be cautious of what are there going to be the big problems in that marketplace and not let greed take you over into, uh, into being overly.
00:35:57.280 — 00:35:57.760 · Speaker 6
Invested.
00:35:57.800 — 00:36:16.840 · Richared Taylor
Josh Brown says what can go right because everyone else spend so much time on thinking what can go wrong. And there’s there’s no end. You can there’s no end of stuff. You can point to it what can go wrong. Obviously there’s always setbacks. There’s always missteps. But what can go right, I think is a much healthier way to try and reframe your investing.
But but with with the guardrails you mentioned.
00:36:16.840 — 00:36:17.000 · Speaker 6
I.
00:36:17.000 — 00:36:37.200 · Brian Dunhill
Think it was in thinking fast, thinking slow. Hee hee stated, uh, the difference between an optimist and a pessimist is a pessimist is wrong when he thinks things are going to go wrong and then wrong again if it does go wrong. Whereas an optimist is only wrong once if it goes wrong. So therefore they’re only wrong half the time.
00:36:37.600 — 00:36:39.400 · Speaker 6
And and I might.
00:36:39.400 — 00:36:40.600 · Brian Dunhill
Be oversimplifying it.
00:36:40.600 — 00:36:41.240 · Speaker 6
I’m definitely.
00:36:41.240 — 00:36:41.920 · Brian Dunhill
Misquoting.
00:36:41.920 — 00:36:42.040 · Speaker 6
It.
00:36:42.040 — 00:36:49.160 · Brian Dunhill
But that’s the gist of it is just by being optimistic we’re right or we’re only wrong half the number of times.
00:36:49.160 — 00:36:49.720 · Speaker 6
As the past.
00:36:49.880 — 00:36:51.920 · Richared Taylor
Daniel Kahneman right. Daniel Kahneman.
00:36:52.200 — 00:36:54.480 · Speaker 6
Did you exactly know exactly.
00:36:54.520 — 00:36:58.160 · Richared Taylor
Why? Do you know how he, um. Do you know how you know he passed away recently?
00:36:59.360 — 00:37:01.840 · Speaker 6
Did you know how it was? A couple of years ago.
00:37:02.120 — 00:37:46.320 · Richared Taylor
He went to, uh. He went to Veritas in Switzerland. He was. He was just he was getting old, and he just said he didn’t. He didn’t tell anyone apart from his wife. Right. And he went on her last trip with her when they went around Paris and he took himself off to, um, I think it was very well, somewhere in Switzerland and, and went out on his own terms and it caused quite a bit of controversy.
But I kind of got a I think he was in his early 90s. He was ailing, you know, starting to ale. He just didn’t want to go into that slow decline. And, you know, some people were vehemently, uh, some people were horrified. I literally don’t think he told many people at all. So it really took a lot of people by surprise.
But in some ways, I it’s quite, uh, I got quite respect for that.
00:37:46.560 — 00:38:03.600 · Brian Dunhill
Uh, when, when somebody is making that conscious decision, it’s it’s hard to criticise it. It’s, it’s one of those you’re going on your own grounds, you’re making that decision. Um, but it’s easy to see why somebody wouldn’t bring it up to a lot of people because it is going to be controversial. Yeah.
00:38:03.640 — 00:38:11.560 · Richared Taylor
Very controversial. Yeah. Anyway. Well, okay. Right, mate. Uh, good to see you again, as always. I hope you have a great month and I will catch up with you very soon.
00:38:11.560 — 00:38:13.800 · Brian Dunhill
Have a great holidays, Richard. See you soon.
00:38:14.280 — 00:38:59.890 · Richared Taylor
All right, folks, that’s another episode of Expat Wealth under our belts. Thank you for listening. I appreciate it and I appreciate you. If you’re enjoying the show and would like to support the mission, which is to help ambitious expats thrive in America and ask you to subscribe to the pod wherever you listen.
And also consider leaving a rating and review. This stuff really does matter. Please help us get this information to the people who need it, that is to your fellow expats. Just a quick reminder that this show is brought to you by Punjabi as well. We are a US based financial planner and wealth manager, and we help successful American and international families living across the US to make the most of their opportunity and ultimately to retire happier.
If you’d like to know more about how we might be able to help you, you can find us on our website.
00:39:01.690 — 00:39:12.130 · Richared Taylor
Com or you can look me up on LinkedIn. Do get in touch. We’d love to hear from you. As always, thank you to the podcast guys for their help producing this episode and the entire show. See you next week.
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