Bears Sound Smart, Bulls Make You Money (We’re The Brits In America S1:E27)

James and Richard are back once again in the financial trenches. The UK election is done and dusted, but there’s still much to discuss.

The US elections are approaching and, as always, with them fears of a market downturn. Having a systematic investment plan during these volatile times is essential, as James explains. It can be difficult to go against our ingrained emotional and psychological impulses, but react to them at your peril!

Plus, how to take control of your retirement: Rich and James analyze the best ways to get on top of savings and navigate the unpredictability of the stock market.

Chapters

06:34: UK Election and Change in Government
12:24: The Power of Systematic Investing
17:36: Retirement Savings and Taking Control
22:31: Fear of Market Downturn and Investor Psychology
24:12: Market Volatility and Long-Term Returns
25:11: Navigating the Unpredictability of the Stock Market
29:25: Understanding Inflation and Unemployment Rates

We’re the Brits in America is affiliated with Plan First Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Plan First Wealth.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Plan First Wealth does not provide any tax and/or legal advice and strongly recommends that listeners seek their own advice in these areas.

About Richard

Richard Taylor is a British expat, dual citizen (UK & US). Originally from Bolton, he now lives in Greenwich, CT, where Plan First Wealth has its head office.

As the firm’s leader, Richard launched Taylor & Taylor, now Plan First Wealth, and continues to fuel the firm’s growth. Richard is a Chartered Financial Planner (UK – CII) in addition to holding the IMC (CFA UK) and Series 65 (US – FINRA).

Connect with Richard on LinkedIn

About James

James Boyle is the lead financial planner at Plan First Wealth. He is going on ten years in the industry on the American financial planning side, including having certification as a financial planner in the States. James is also CFP level four UK cross-border certified, making him exceptionally qualified in the niche in which he works.

Connect with James on LinkedIn

Richard Taylor:
[00:00:21 – 00:01:34]
Welcome to the We’re the Brits in America podcast, a plan first wealth podcast, or Brits in America by Brits in America, dedicated to helping British expats thrive in America. I’m your host, Richard Taylor, and Plan First wealth is the business I founded and run today, and we work with successful British expatriates living across the US to make the most of their opportunity and avoid the expat landmines. However, while Plan First Wealth, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor, the views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of PlanFirstwell. Information presented is for educational purposes only. Now, if you aren’t already receiving our weekly emails, please go to our website, planfirstwealth.com and sign up to wealth hub. It’s free and you’ll then be notified every time we drop a new episode and so much more. Alrighty, let’s get back to this week’s show. Okay, welcome back to a from the Trenches episode. This is where James and I get together and bring you behind the curtain at plan first wealth and give you our updates and takes on what’s going on in the world. So, hi, James.

James Boyle:
[00:01:34 – 00:01:36]
Welcome back, everyone. It’s been a while.

Richard Taylor:
[00:01:36 – 00:01:52]
It has been a while. So I’m sure everyone noticed or not, that we missed a month, and that’s because I’ve been laid up with a dodgy achilles ruptured my Achilles playing pickleball, of all things. But I’m back. I’m back, baby.

James Boyle:
[00:01:52 – 00:01:54]
You won the game at least, right? In glory.

Richard Taylor:
[00:01:54 – 00:02:49]
No, but I was winning. I was winning. I was new to the sport. That’s part of the problem. I was hanging out at the back of the court like a tennis player, and you need to be at the front of the net. And someone drop shotted me and I took off as a teenager would, and my 40 year old body said, nah, no, mate. My Achilles snapped. I went down because I’ve done this before. Did my left achilles playing squash ten years ago. I knew immediately what I’d done. And I knew my racket sport career has come to an end because my wife shepherded me through the first one, which is a long recovery, and she shouldered a lot of the burden there. Only that time we lived in an apartment, so I had no stairs and we had no kids and no dogs. It was my left foot, so I could still drive so now I’ve done my right foot. I have a house with stairs. I have two children under the age of five, and I have a dog. So it has been a dramatically different experience for me and for her. So, everyone say a little prayer.

James Boyle:
[00:02:49 – 00:02:51]
None of these things help.

Richard Taylor:
[00:02:51 – 00:02:53]
No, no.

James Boyle:
[00:02:53 – 00:02:53]
In any way.

Richard Taylor:
[00:02:54 – 00:02:54]
But I’m doing good.

James Boyle:
[00:02:54 – 00:02:55]
Good.

Richard Taylor:
[00:02:55 – 00:02:58]
I’m doing good. Have I shown you? Let me show you. I’ve got a boot on. Let me show you.

James Boyle:
[00:02:58 – 00:02:58]
I know this.

Richard Taylor:
[00:02:59 – 00:03:07]
We’re an audio podcast, so for any audio listeners, I apologize. James will describe it in great detail, but I’ve got this on. I can see that.

James Boyle:
[00:03:07 – 00:03:09]
Wow. That’s state of the art.

Richard Taylor:
[00:03:10 – 00:03:22]
No, it’s not actually state of. That would be a vacoped. This is a american style. Just a enormous, cumbersome boot. But I was in Castle recently, but now I’m in this thing for the next few weeks.

James Boyle:
[00:03:22 – 00:03:27]
And the boot, here’s a dumb question. You can’t take that off, ever, until it comes off.

Richard Taylor:
[00:03:27 – 00:03:29]
Oh, no, no, I can. Yeah, that’s great. The caster couldn’t take off at all.

James Boyle:
[00:03:29 – 00:03:30]
Got it.

Richard Taylor:
[00:03:30 – 00:03:35]
But this thing, I take off now several times a day because I’m already exercising.

James Boyle:
[00:03:35 – 00:03:35]
Nice.

Richard Taylor:
[00:03:35 – 00:04:14]
I’m already doing heel lifts and using a theraband to start building strength. And I sleep in a splint, so I’ve got to take it off. Honestly, that’s one of the things. I’m a Brit. Hopefully that comes as a surprise to no one. So, I grew up with the NHS and I’m a believer in free at the point of care, healthcare. But I’ve had this left achilles go in the UK. I’ve had my right achilles go in the US. And the care I’ve received, the way I’ve been treated, the progress I’ve made today, has been incomparable. Incomparable. And I’m really conflicted. I know the NHS is a mess right now, but I still. I’ll tell you my experience, both the way I’ve been made to feel, and my actual care and attention and progress night and day.

James Boyle:
[00:04:14 – 00:04:19]
Hopefully, this is the last comparison you’ll have. Right. You’re not gonna be somewhere else for the third?

Richard Taylor:
[00:04:19 – 00:04:21]
Well, yeah. You mean in terms of moving around?

James Boyle:
[00:04:21 – 00:04:24]
Yeah. You don’t wanna be in France for your third Achilles?

Richard Taylor:
[00:04:24 – 00:05:07]
No. Yes, absolutely. Although I do feel that this last month, I’ve had to really confront my age. So I’ve turned 40 this year. Then in the last month, I noticed my gray hair, beard and hair getting much more noticeable. And then my Achilles goes playing pickleball which I was playing pickleball, so this wouldn’t happen. I wasn’t playing squash because I knew what happened, but that’s why I was playing. Anyway, don’t get me started on that. And then I noticed the other night, this is, like, literally two nights ago, that my hairline is starting to recede. That’s why I’ve got my hair down. Now. I normally have my hair back because it just looks a bit more professional, but I’ve got my hair down. So I said to my wife, I said, is my hairline receding here? She’s like, oh, yeah, I’d noticed that. I was like, well, why didn’t you say anything? So it turns out, I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of this. Have you ever heard of something called traction alopecia?

James Boyle:
[00:05:07 – 00:05:11]
Is it from pulling your hair back? Yes, I have heard of that. Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:11 – 00:05:32]
I hadn’t, and I’ve been wearing my hair back for two years. I wish someone had told me it might not be that, but I’m hopeful it is that. So now I’m going to go through a period of wearing my hair down to try and regrow this before. So for anyone who doesn’t know, if anyone cares, traction alopecia is where you wear your hair back. And if you wear your hair back tightly, you can start to damage the hair follicles and you lose hair from the front. Black women really suffer from this. Must be horrible.

James Boyle:
[00:05:32 – 00:05:39]
I’m joining you. I can join you on the gray train. I thought I was gonna get, like, the cool touch of gray on the sideburns. That’s what I was working towards.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:39 – 00:05:39]
Yeah.

James Boyle:
[00:05:39 – 00:05:43]
I’m gonna have the Jay Leno skunk tail right in the center.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:44 – 00:05:45]
That’s my mind coming, actually.

James Boyle:
[00:05:45 – 00:05:47]
Yeah, yeah. There you go.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:47 – 00:05:50]
So I am confronting my aging.

James Boyle:
[00:05:50 – 00:05:52]
None of us are getting any younger.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:52 – 00:05:54]
My wife has a great way of looking at it. You gotta be grateful.

James Boyle:
[00:05:54 – 00:05:54]
Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:54 – 00:05:56]
You know, the alternative is you’re not here.

James Boyle:
[00:05:56 – 00:05:57]
A lot worse. Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:05:58 – 00:06:10]
And then we preach this, right? We preach life is not a dress rehearsal. You only get one shot at this. Make the most of it, and just. It’s these milestone. But you turned 30 not so long ago. These milestone birthdays, even though it’s totally arbitrary, they force you to, like, consider the next decade.

James Boyle:
[00:06:10 – 00:06:11]
Makes you reflect.

Richard Taylor:
[00:06:11 – 00:06:13]
Yeah. So I’m doing a lot of that.

James Boyle:
[00:06:13 – 00:06:17]
32 coming up here in a couple of months. So great goes quick.

Richard Taylor:
[00:06:17 – 00:06:25]
So I’m back. We missed a month. I’ve been busy. No, I’ve not been busy. My wife’s been busy, poor thing, so say a prayer for her.

James Boyle:
[00:06:25 – 00:06:27]
Everyone’s holding up well, right?

Richard Taylor:
[00:06:27 – 00:06:32]
Hopefully doing fine. We’re doing great. So, what have we missed? A UK election.

James Boyle:
[00:06:32 – 00:06:33]
Big news. Yep.

Richard Taylor:
[00:06:33 – 00:06:43]
Hot off the press. So, a change of government for the first time in, I think, 16, 2008, 2009, maybe 2010, when the Tories got in.

James Boyle:
[00:06:43 – 00:06:44]
Wow.

Richard Taylor:
[00:06:44 – 00:07:08]
Yeah. That government had really calcified and it was really quite horrible what happened since Brexit, really. What’s. I mean, you can argue I came before. Our remedy to the global financial crisis was austerity, and that hit a lot of people really hard. But things then seemed to be going okay and then Brexit kind of got in the way of all that and it’s just been a horrible mess since then. I welcome a change in government. Obviously don’t agree with everything Labour stand for. Agree with a lot of it.

James Boyle:
[00:07:09 – 00:07:09]
Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:07:09 – 00:07:28]
I tell you one thing I’m greatly encouraged by, and that is Kia Starmer. He is not the most charismatic of men, but I do believe, fundamentally, deep down, he is a good man and he is a highly intelligent and competent man. And do you know what? Massive win.

James Boyle:
[00:07:28 – 00:07:30]
Yeah. Yeah. There’s a lot to be said for that.

Richard Taylor:
[00:07:30 – 00:07:54]
Charisma always wins out in everything. Right. But in politics and everything normally, and that can mask so many deficiencies. Not even deficiencies like negatives. And I think in kiest armour, Britain now has a good, honest, well meaning, intelligent, capable leader. Who knows how that will play out? Maybe you need to be more machiavellian or self interested at that level. I don’t know, but I’m excited for the UK to give this one a shot.

James Boyle:
[00:07:54 – 00:08:00]
Yep. Change is, I think, at this point, welcomed, you could see, by the landslide. Right. I mean, it was pretty definitive.

Richard Taylor:
[00:08:00 – 00:08:00]
Yeah.

James Boyle:
[00:08:00 – 00:08:06]
It’s always fascinating as a sort of third party to watch from afar because the system is different, but, yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:08:06 – 00:08:11]
Interestingly, though, so they got this landslide in seats, but I think they only captured something like 30 odd percent of the vote.

James Boyle:
[00:08:11 – 00:08:12]
Okay.

Richard Taylor:
[00:08:12 – 00:08:16]
I think a lot of people didn’t vote in protest or a fairly low turnout.

James Boyle:
[00:08:16 – 00:08:16]
Right.

Richard Taylor:
[00:08:17 – 00:08:44]
Yes. But also after political system in the UK is something called first past the post. So every seat is its own race and you just have to win a majority in. Not even a majority, you just get the most votes to win your seat. So they don’t have a mandate in that respect. An overwhelming majority of the country hasn’t voted for them, but they do have an overwhelming majority in parliament, which is kind of good. Part of the problem with the other european systems is they’re all coalitions. They break apart easily and nothing can get done. She’s ending up in deadlock. And we don’t really have that.

James Boyle:
[00:08:44 – 00:08:49]
We don’t have any political gridlock in the states. We’ve solved that problem completely.

Richard Taylor:
[00:08:50 – 00:08:59]
What is happening here is what a nightmare, what an awful situation we have right now. The two choices, how did it end up like this?

James Boyle:
[00:08:59 – 00:09:08]
I’ll tell you this. The uncertainty does not help investors feel more comfortable. Right. Because we get asked every day, what should I be doing? How should I react?

Richard Taylor:
[00:09:08 – 00:09:43]
It’s the same every time. Every time it’s contentious and every time it seems more contentious than the last time. This time does feel worse, but the answer is always the same. And tune out. Long run markets don’t care whether it’s Democrats or republican in power. You look at the history, good governments, bad governments, Democrats, Republicans, pro business, anti, but the market does what the market does. These companies are still run by highly intelligent, profit motivated individuals and they’ll keep doing their thing, keep making money and don’t shake a word for it.

James Boyle:
[00:09:43 – 00:09:46]
Look at history and volatility. People ask, right?

Richard Taylor:
[00:09:46 – 00:09:48]
That’s the investment you can expect, volatility.

James Boyle:
[00:09:49 – 00:09:59]
Right. I mean, and in a geopolitical torment, there’s going to be some volatility. But the answer that you hear from us is going to be the same. Stick to your plan. And if you don’t have a plan, get one.

Richard Taylor:
[00:09:59 – 00:10:32]
Yeah. It’s always that you want to be part of it. You want to act, you don’t want to react. That’s how you make money in the long term investments or that’s our belief anyway. And certainly evidence backs that up. But if you are reacting to events, whether it’s political or economic or even investment, that’s, we believe how you lose money in the markets over long term or you don’t make as much as you should. And that’s evidenced by how much money investors make in funds versus the funds themselves make over time because investors go in and out of them. Famous Dalbar study. But reacting to stuff is not the way to do it. And that applies to this as it applies to everything else.

James Boyle:
[00:10:32 – 00:10:33]
Yep.

Richard Taylor:
[00:10:33 – 00:10:41]
But I will say, you know, as a person with a vested interest in living in this country and the world should care, frankly, when it comes to America, this is a sorry state of affairs.

James Boyle:
[00:10:42 – 00:10:43]
Yeah, I agree.

Richard Taylor:
[00:10:43 – 00:10:45]
Right. Anything going on in your world, James?

James Boyle:
[00:10:45 – 00:11:55]
You know, I don’t mean to segue us, you know, ham handedly, but there are ways to systematize your investments so that you’re not reacting to current market, to what’s happened in the market or in the headlines or in the news. We read an interesting article, I know that we were going to bring up about systematic investing. This was tied to 401 ks and getting people opted in automatically such that they would have to choose to opt out. And the impact that has had on the bottom line, both for the investor investing more consistently, not reacting as much in market downturns, and also, quite frankly, just getting people to invest right, participate in the market. So this study, I believe it was in the Wall Street Journal, am I correct in that we read an article from Ben Carlson over at Compound and friends that summarized it essentially, just looking at the power in setting up a systematic investment plan such that whether it’s your 401K, your IRA, brokerage accounts, for a lot of people in our audience, they’re maximizing their tax advantaged accounts and getting that money to work for you on a disciplined, systematic approach, as opposed to every six months saying, oh, I have some extra money in my checking. Maybe I should look at the market and decide if it’s a good time to invest.

Richard Taylor:
[00:11:55 – 00:12:52]
There’s several takeaways from this great piece. We’ll put it in the show notes and anyone who’s not following his blog should do. He’s brilliant. First point is just the power, the impact on returns in the economy that the 401K has had to mainly the american stock market. So the past, how old is the years? Every two weeks there’s billions, millions, billions, whatever. Ultimately, over time, trillions of dollars automatically flowing into the stock market every two weeks. When you look at the last hundred years or whatever your timeframe is of market activity in the US, you wonder, like, how has the US economy done this? And there, and that’s a valid question. The market, the US economy is a powerhouse. But until recently, because of these guys at the compound, I’ve never really factored in the idea that it’s driven partly by just trillions on a bi weekly basis flowing into the market and buying equities.

James Boyle:
[00:12:52 – 00:13:25]
And there’s a lot of reasons for that, right? I mean, the move away from defined benefit, what people knew as pensions, almost completely in the US, right? They don’t exist anymore, practically speaking. So you have this entire couple of generations now of what we would term forced buyers, right? Essentially, you’re on a path of investing and participating in the market. But like you said, the sort of upwind, the power behind that, that can force the stock market essentially to keep growing. I don’t know if we even fully understand the impact that has and will continue to have.

Richard Taylor:
[00:13:25 – 00:14:06]
And I think it’s not overd. As humans live longer, as defined benefit plans, completely eradicated from the map, they still exist. You know, older people have still got them. And as governments realize, they need to do more to encourage people to take control of their savings and invest more. So the starting rate or all the, the tools that they use to get people to opt into 401k, so the automatic opt in, you have to opt out rather than having to opt in. You know, I hope that makes sense. And the starting rate, you know, it used to start like 3%, but now it’s automatically people are starting higher, so there’s more money going in and there’s more people in the workforce. And, yeah, I think this is a bullish story, and it will continue to be a bullish story for a long time.

James Boyle:
[00:14:06 – 00:14:16]
And unless there’s massive structural change, I don’t think we’re going to see the return of, you know, the defined benefit pension plan that was commonplace for generations. Yeah, it’s just not going to happen.

Richard Taylor:
[00:14:16 – 00:14:42]
No chance. I think retirement has to change. I think the concept of working to 65 and downing tools is unrealistic, to put it one way, in this modern era. So I think mentalities have to change. I think our relationship with work has to change and our relationship with how we fund retirement and we do. Retirement has to change. But defined benefits aren’t coming back. And investment in the stock market and retirement accounts are a critical piece of that.

James Boyle:
[00:14:42 – 00:15:25]
It’s a story about psychology, too, right? Investor psychology, wherever. If you know that your 401k every two weeks, rain or shine, is going to go in and get invested in the market, you’re way less likely to react poorly. Now, people still do, right? There are people that panic and make a bad decision and say, oh, I’m going to cash and take everything out, whatever it may be. But just having that structure in place is so impactful. And this article, there’s statistics that back that up. But if you’re not on some kind of systematic plan, and for our clients, the people we talk with in our world, quite frankly, probably should be something beyond 401 ks and iras. Probably should look at investing in a brokerage account or a taxable account. If you’re not doing that, reconsider. I would say, as part of your.

Richard Taylor:
[00:15:25 – 00:16:24]
Financial planning, agree 100%. I think that’s the next takeaway from this, is if the first one is the power of just this mechanism that’s buoyed and supported and helped the stock market grow. The second one is do more of this. And what we see, our clients and the people we meet generally have got great 401 ks and iras, and they’re pumping money in there, and that’s great. But then they almost consider like, oh, job done. And maybe they’ll, they’re maybe from an annual bonus, they’ll drop some money in once or twice a year, but they should do that, and they should have a monthly or whatever frequency you want to talk about, but a monthly systematic brokerage account deposit, because otherwise that money vanishes into the ether. So when we build financial plans for anyone who wants to look behind the curtain here, when we build financial plans, if there’s money left over at the end of, you can either incorporate it back into the plan or you can have it vanish. We always have it vanish because I promise you, it vanishes. So capture some of that, even if it’s small to begin with, because it’s then really easy to increase it over time.

James Boyle:
[00:16:24 – 00:16:25]
Yep.

Richard Taylor:
[00:16:25 – 00:16:43]
Once you realize that life goes on and you still have the same quality of life, and yet, wait, you’re putting an extra 60, 7100 grand a year into your brokerage account, then this is great then, because you mix up the tax profile of your investments more. Because if you have purely retirement accounts, everything’s taxable when you take it out. So if you have like, a lump sum needs, you can have, like, cash difficulties with that.

James Boyle:
[00:16:43 – 00:17:04]
Not to mention the tax optimization that comes with having multiple different tax vehicles. Right? A traditional pre tax account, roth accounts, taxable brokerage accounts. Having that variety is a useful tool when setting out to retire, too, because you could really control. Okay, where am I taking distributions from? How am I managing? This from a tax perspective, is powerful.

Richard Taylor:
[00:17:04 – 00:17:05]
Anything else on that one?

James Boyle:
[00:17:05 – 00:17:24]
The only thing I will end with, isn’t it funny that all of the most successful tools for investors are ones that directly contradict and overcome basic human psychology? All of them. Everything that would come to mind for a human by instinct is the wrong way to invest.

Richard Taylor:
[00:17:24 – 00:17:27]
What is it Nick Murray says? Human nature is a failed investor.

James Boyle:
[00:17:27 – 00:17:28]
Yes. Yep.

Richard Taylor:
[00:17:28 – 00:18:01]
All of us. And there’s an enormous difference between the people who accept that and are okay with it and a strange subset of people who just saying that to them makes them angry almost, and defensive and aggressive. But as you were saying that earlier on about, there are still people who will want to time the market. People are people. All these tools are evolving, but we are still that 50,000 year old newly evolved mammal out on the plane. Our brain is going to take a lot, lot longer to catch up to being a good investor. So in the meantime, let’s rule on the tricks and the behavioral.

James Boyle:
[00:18:01 – 00:18:04]
Yeah, use the tools available to you. Exactly.

Richard Taylor:
[00:18:04 – 00:18:52]
So I was. I had lots of time to sit on my phone and read. We do a lot of reading and consuming content as part of our job, obviously. And we talked about trying to pull out something that we think we found interesting, but we think other people might find interesting and useful. But something that caught my eye while I was off was a Wall Street Journal article. Now, we love the Wall Street Journal’s investment commentary, people in e commentary. It’s great for that, although not so much this one. So this article was investors fear. Long stretch of calm in markets can’t last. This article is such a nothing burger. Of course it can’t. That’s the nature of investing, particularly in the stock. That’s the quid pro quo. This article is like five pages of, you know, markets aren’t normally this calm. Yeah, they’re not. What a win. Take it for what it is.

James Boyle:
[00:18:52 – 00:19:44]
Like, it’s one of those things where, and part of this, too, for context, and I’m sure everyone listening is aware of this, is that we’re at all time highs. And when we’ve had quite the bull run here for the last six odd months, people start getting nervous. Right? Is this going to continue? Oh, we’re at all time highs. First of all, we are at all time highs very, very often. We have some statistics here. Since 1950, the us equity markets, obviously, we’re using that as a shorthand. We always caveat that. But the us equity market has hit 1250 all time highs along the path to its current level. For those of you who are doing the math, that’s 16 times a year. It’s hitting a new all time high on average. So this is not a rarity. Obviously. We know you look at a stock market graph s and p, it’s up and to the right. Volatility. To your point, Richard, is part of the price you paid to capture that permanent return.

Richard Taylor:
[00:19:44 – 00:20:04]
I will always remember 2016. I was in Chicago seeing a client, and I remember I was hanging out in the Starbucks just waiting for the meeting, and I had a newspaper, and in there it said, the week I was there, the S and P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones had all hit new time highs. I remember thinking to myself, that’s it.

James Boyle:
[00:20:04 – 00:20:05]
We’ve reached it.

Richard Taylor:
[00:20:05 – 00:20:45]
What an indicator that this is the top and that we need to bail out now. Luckily, even back then, I wasn’t quite as versed on this philosophy, but I still followed it, and I knew not to do anything about it. But I called the top in my own head, at least. I was so wrong. 2016, it marched on. Yeah, we had a little bit of a wobble at 2018, which is inconsequential now because they put interest rates up and all that’s come since then, Covid, the nightmare that was 2022, and look at where we are. I mean, it’s probably, I mean, it’s at least doubled since then. Maybe more. I don’t have the numbers because I’ve just pulled this from my brain, but I always fall back on that as going back to what you said about we’re all fallible. Yeah, we live this and we’re fallible, but I didn’t act on it. That’s a critical point.

James Boyle:
[00:20:45 – 00:20:53]
And I’ll go to your defense here. There was probably every reason in the world to think that maybe we’d have a correction. There always is. Always.

Richard Taylor:
[00:20:53 – 00:21:10]
There always is. What is it they say? Bears sound smart, bulls will make you money. So it’s so easy to sprout off on all. We should be worried about this. And this is what about this? Because there’s so much for negative about all the time. There’s so much we could just talk about now, but the market doesn’t care, and you react to that at your peril.

James Boyle:
[00:21:10 – 00:21:15]
And we should say, too, talking specifically about investments, right? Obviously things change in the world and politics.

Richard Taylor:
[00:21:15 – 00:21:15]
Oh, yeah.

James Boyle:
[00:21:15 – 00:21:29]
But as far as an investing mindset, people, I think, tend to look back on 2016 or any time in the past and say, oh, but we felt okay then. Or the market felt calm and, you know, I didn’t really see anything, and that’s never the case.

Richard Taylor:
[00:21:29 – 00:21:40]
Ever think about raising your kids right? I’m in the thick of it right now. And it’s mayhem. It’s absolute mayhem. But, you know, you’ll look back and you’ll just, you’ll see the pictures and you just remember all the cute stuff. You won’t remember.

James Boyle:
[00:21:40 – 00:21:42]
In a way, it’s good, right?

Richard Taylor:
[00:21:42 – 00:22:12]
It’s relentless, adaptive. It’s a human thing. It’s a coping mechanism, and that’s exactly the same. People are now looking back fondly on the George W. Bush partisan era. Right. Or the Clinton partisan era. Newt Gingrich and all that. It was mayhem then. It was, yeah. So roast into spectacles. So you just have to zoom out. But this article, I was surprised at the Wall Street Journal really pandering. It felt like pandering. I just don’t know what I learned from this, other than markets aren’t always calm.

James Boyle:
[00:22:12 – 00:22:54]
One thing that jumped out to me, too, thinking this idea of all time highs, right, investing in all time highs. The other stat I brought that I found pretty impactful is that average returns, not only did they match a normal investing period, right? So looking at a twelve month forward rolling return from an all time high, 12.7% from a point of an all time high, versus 12.4 for, you know, not an all time high. So not only is it not worse, it’s actually better. Now, we’re not going to play the game of, okay, you should only be investing during a bull run. But it goes to show that to try to predict what’s going to happen solely on the basis of, okay, the S P has just hit an all time high is a fool’s errand.

Richard Taylor:
[00:22:54 – 00:22:56]
When you zoom out and think about it, it’s a power momentum.

James Boyle:
[00:22:56 – 00:22:56]
Yep.

Richard Taylor:
[00:22:56 – 00:23:04]
Right. We’re hitting new time highs. Presumably it’s because things are going really well. Eventually the party stops. Right. But the party can go on for a good long time first.

James Boyle:
[00:23:04 – 00:23:05]
Oh, yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:23:05 – 00:23:17]
And the critical thing is when the party stops, thus far in human history, it has always been temporary. We have never, ever not recovered. And if you can embrace this, you can make a lot of money in the stock market.

James Boyle:
[00:23:17 – 00:23:17]
Absolutely.

Richard Taylor:
[00:23:18 – 00:23:42]
All right, let’s just wrap up here with what’s going on currently. So we got some good news this week. I think inflation is down to 3%. Can you believe after the last 18 months, two years, we’re nearly hitting a two print, a number with a two at the front. I know we’re all fatigued by the way we buy groceries just like the rest of you. My whole foods bill, I look at it each week in shock and horror. And it’s important to note here the rate of inflation is going down. Prices aren’t going to go down. They’re stuck.

James Boyle:
[00:23:42 – 00:24:09]
Yep. That’s a big thing that people can misconceive or not quite understand, is when we say the technical fund jargon is disinflation. Right. It just means that the rate of inflation is slowing, but prices are not going to roll back. It’s very rare. And in fact, you talk about the economics of a deflation is really lethal to an economy. But these kind of prints are what the Fed wants to see to now. Look ahead to rate cuts potentially in September and December. Seem to be the consensus right now that will change.

Richard Taylor:
[00:24:09 – 00:24:19]
Well, so inflation come down to 3%. Great. Wow. Unemployment is ticking up. That is something to keep your eye on. Unemployment ticking up 4.1%.

James Boyle:
[00:24:19 – 00:24:25]
That’s the highest it’s been since late 2021. So it’s absolutely. The pattern is that it’s increasing.

Richard Taylor:
[00:24:25 – 00:24:31]
No predictions, he says, making a prediction. It’s hard to see interest rates not going down this year.

James Boyle:
[00:24:31 – 00:24:32]
I agree.

Richard Taylor:
[00:24:32 – 00:24:38]
Now, I don’t think we go down to zero again, but, you know, if you’ve got uc 5%, I think the end is nigh.

James Boyle:
[00:24:38 – 00:24:58]
The Fed has two mandates. Everyone listening may know, number one, inflation, purchasing power. Number two, employment. I would expect to see a shift towards that second mandate, namely rate cuts in the last half of the year here and now, it’s going to be a game of if we do slide into recession, which we very well could, how severe, how long will it last? Will rate cuts help?

Richard Taylor:
[00:24:58 – 00:24:59]
It’s been a remarkable run.

James Boyle:
[00:25:00 – 00:25:00]
Absolutely.

Richard Taylor:
[00:25:00 – 00:25:08]
2022 was horrible from an investment perspective, but to emerge from that without a recession thus far has been incredible. So let’s take the win.

James Boyle:
[00:25:08 – 00:25:09]
Yep.

Richard Taylor:
[00:25:09 – 00:25:28]
I’m hopeful, dare I say confident, that we can emerge from this without a recession. But they’re landing the plane now. The most dangerous parts of flying right. Are taking off and landing. And I think now that they’re really at the landing part. And just watch this space. Don’t take any action. Systemize your investments. Invest more. But it feels. It’s been remarkable. We’ve got to this point, but it feels that we’re a bit of a crunch period.

James Boyle:
[00:25:28 – 00:25:45]
To your point there, Richard, not reacting. Think about if you had reacted in October of 23, you’d miss a run up. That again, you’ll hear us say this, we repeat things, but making that one bad decision or choice or mistake, especially in the early stages of retirement, can derail you completely. No plan b?

Richard Taylor:
[00:25:45 – 00:26:00]
No plan B. If you make that mistake in your working career, you sell out. 30% down, 20% down. All right? It’s horrible. Hopefully, lesson learned. It’s gonna sting, and maybe that’s what you needed. Right? But you can recover from that. You do that when you finish work and you can’t make it up.

James Boyle:
[00:26:00 – 00:26:06]
That’s does a lot more than sting. That’s not an Achilles rupture. That’s irreparable damage.

Richard Taylor:
[00:26:06 – 00:26:09]
Yes, yes. Bring this full circle. I like it.

James Boyle:
[00:26:09 – 00:26:09]
Pretty good.

Richard Taylor:
[00:26:09 – 00:26:14]
Okay, perfect. Right, well, you’ve tied us up with a bow there, James. I like it. Anything else to add?

James Boyle:
[00:26:14 – 00:26:15]
No. No, that’s good.

Richard Taylor:
[00:26:15 – 00:26:25]
No? Well, should we do pick and mix? Pick and mix. Thank you. You can see I’m totally out of practice here. So I have been avidly following the euros, obviously.

James Boyle:
[00:26:25 – 00:26:27]
Yes, absolutely.

Richard Taylor:
[00:26:27 – 00:26:49]
I’ve been laid up. I haven’t followed a soccer tournament for over a decade. Honestly, I’ve really enjoyed it and it’s got loads of stick. But I really enjoyed the Fox’s coverage as well, so no complaints there. And this wasn’t a thing, really, when I was watching soccer or football. Sorry, but there’s a woman fronting the whole show and there’s a commentator called Jackie something. She’s brilliant. I think she’s possibly the best.

James Boyle:
[00:26:50 – 00:26:53]
Was she on the Fox broadcast? I must have heard her.

Richard Taylor:
[00:26:53 – 00:26:57]
No, she. Jules, I can’t remember surname. Give to the b. She, like, hosts it. She’s great.

James Boyle:
[00:26:57 – 00:26:58]
Oh, got it.

Richard Taylor:
[00:26:58 – 00:27:07]
But there’s an actual commentator, a play by play commentator. She wasn’t commentating. She’s called Jackie something. Jackie Oatley or something. She wasn’t commentating the Netherlands match. She wasn’t commentating that. But she is great.

James Boyle:
[00:27:07 – 00:27:08]
Nice.

Richard Taylor:
[00:27:08 – 00:27:38]
So that’s been really interesting for me, but I’ve really enjoyed this tournament. England have been pretty poor throughout, honestly. Although remarkable where we’ve got. Yeah, but what’s been noticeable for me, other than Spain, who are just superbike, is the good teams have been really awful. Italy were appalling. The reigning champions, the lesser teams have been great. So Switzerland, Austria, Georgia, turkey. Turkey played some great football. I’ve really enjoyed it. Really enjoyed it. And England have got to the final.

James Boyle:
[00:27:38 – 00:27:49]
When there’s a level of competition. Yeah. That makes it so much more enjoyable to watch. Not that I’m an expert, I mean, I watch the Netherland games. We should say too, for listeners, we’re recording this prior to the finals, which will happen this coming Sunday.

Richard Taylor:
[00:27:50 – 00:29:14]
Okay, so my prediction, hesitate. I think we’re going to get dismantled by Spain. They are so good in a nice kil Williams on the left wing. My God. Yes. They play attractive football and they’re in control. Yeah, I’m looking forward to it. I’m looking forward to it and it’s great. I think we’ll get it dismantled, but great that it’s just. It just makes it more, even more interesting and fun. So I’ve really, really enjoyed the euros and I read an article recently that’s had a really lasting impression on me. I’m just going to pull the name up here. So in the Guardian, there’s a long, long article. It’s called the long read and it’s called, it comes for your very soul. How Alzheimer’s undid my dazzling, creative wife in her forties. And it’s a long article about a guy who is wife. They have two kids, and she had early onset Alzheimer’s, and Alzheimer’s came for my gran in her eighties. Right. So it’s touched my family, but totally different situation to this. And I found this article, this thought piece, extremely moving. I think Alzheimer’s or dementia in general, is something that’s going to touch more and more lives as we’re getting older and older and living longer. I hope they have some better cures for it, but I don’t really have the right words to explain how moving this article was and things you hadn’t thought about. And again, it just makes me think about this one life that we talk about and trying to make the most of it and spend time with your loved ones and do the things that you like doing. I would recommend that article to anyone.

James Boyle:
[00:29:14 – 00:29:21]
It’s a tough read. I’ll say. It’s really an emotional read. But you’re right. Very well written and a good reminder that, yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:29:21 – 00:29:21]
Very, very honest.

James Boyle:
[00:29:22 – 00:29:43]
Yeah. It’s just one of those things that while you can’t control diagnosis and things like that, being able to look back and say, we did. It’s a couple. Right? Me and my wife spent ten years together, 15 years together. We did everything we wanted to do, and we. We lived life to the full. So obviously, it’s not how anyone would want things to turn out, but it’s.

Richard Taylor:
[00:29:43 – 00:30:05]
A good reminder, and I’m probably more guilty of this. I’m a goal orientated person, so I’m always living in the future, and I’m really trying to get better at this and live in the present, but we get one shot at this. We’re so fortunate to be here. America’s not perfect, but you can build a great life for ourselves here, and there’s great opportunity and just trying to balance everything and enjoy the ride.

James Boyle:
[00:30:05 – 00:30:06]
Absolutely.

Richard Taylor:
[00:30:06 – 00:30:19]
We make mistakes, but trying to make the most of your life, that is what we do, right? Yeah. We’re financial oriented. We’re investment oriented, but really, it’s so much more than that. And reading this article just really. Or this piece just gave me a real jolt in the arm.

James Boyle:
[00:30:19 – 00:30:20]
Yep. Absolutely.

Richard Taylor:
[00:30:20 – 00:30:22]
What about you? What you got for us?

James Boyle:
[00:30:22 – 00:30:24]
Pick and mix. So I try to bring the mood up.

Richard Taylor:
[00:30:24 – 00:30:25]
Thank you.

James Boyle:
[00:30:28 – 00:30:38]
Well, I always come here. I’m talking about what. Yeah, I brought that movie last time, boiling point, and I said it was inspired by what? No, I said it was similar to a show called the Bear.

Richard Taylor:
[00:30:39 – 00:30:39]
Mm hmm.

James Boyle:
[00:30:39 – 00:30:42]
Which just recently dropped season three. I don’t know if you’re watching.

Richard Taylor:
[00:30:42 – 00:30:44]
I haven’t seen it yet. No spoilers.

James Boyle:
[00:30:44 – 00:30:45]
Oh, no spoilers.

Richard Taylor:
[00:30:45 – 00:30:47]
I hear it. Shiny, but not quite.

James Boyle:
[00:30:47 – 00:31:32]
I would agree with that. I would say it’s not quite as good. And now the bar is set high. Right. Season one and two were incredible. Yeah. So I still enjoyed it. There’s one episode in particular, won’t give it away, but it shows the backstory of a character who’s been there from the start. And I just thought it was, I mean, really incredible what it does to show the service workers who are in that industry who are not always recognized or thanked and, you know, the role they have in making a restaurant run. Right. I’m sure a lot of our listeners, you’re going out to eat pretty often and it’s something that you don’t want to take for granted. So. No, I would recommend everyone check out the bear. I think it would help going in with slightly tempered expectations. Right. Because if you’re expecting the high bar set by the first two seasons, it might be not quite up the snow.

Richard Taylor:
[00:31:32 – 00:31:34]
It’s a magnificent piece of television.

James Boyle:
[00:31:34 – 00:31:34]
Yeah. You.

Richard Taylor:
[00:31:34 – 00:31:53]
Sorry, you just triggered something. A memory in me. So last week, went out for dinner for the first time in, like, three weeks because I got my. I got my boot on and my five year old, as only five year olds can do, says, we’re going to Rosina’s. Is Daddy going in that? But everyone will laugh at him. He was so embarrassed.

James Boyle:
[00:31:53 – 00:31:57]
What’s most surprising is he was right. Didn’t the whole restaurant stand up?

Richard Taylor:
[00:31:58 – 00:32:01]
Yeah, I left in shame, crying.

James Boyle:
[00:32:02 – 00:32:06]
How are the kids in restaurants? I know that can change, right. As they get older and.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:06 – 00:32:08]
Oh, depends on the night.

James Boyle:
[00:32:08 – 00:32:08]
Right.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:09 – 00:32:21]
Noisy, messy. Frequently bribe them with YouTube. I’m sorry. Anyone who pours scorn on that hasn’t got kids. I mean, it’s just. You had just. You just have to use the tools at your disposal sometimes.

James Boyle:
[00:32:21 – 00:32:26]
Oh, absolutely. Is the bluey. Is that the YouTube du jour? Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:26 – 00:32:30]
Love Bluey. Yeah. We’re basically sponsored by Bluey in this house right now.

James Boyle:
[00:32:31 – 00:32:31]
Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:31 – 00:32:49]
We’ve got blue pajamas, bluey water bottles. Blue is always on. If it’s on for an extended period of time, I’ll generally cry at least once. There’s an episode. I cried two days ago when it was on. There’s an episode where she goes camping and then she meets this french kid and then she meets him years again, like, oh, just. It is a wonderful program.

James Boyle:
[00:32:49 – 00:32:52]
So you cry when it’s on and you cry when it’s. When it’s not on.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:52 – 00:32:52]
That’s right. Yeah.

James Boyle:
[00:32:52 – 00:32:53]
What you’ve told.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:53 – 00:32:55]
Exactly. No. Right.

James Boyle:
[00:32:55 – 00:32:56]
You can’t win.

Richard Taylor:
[00:32:57 – 00:33:03]
I encourage people who haven’t got kids to watch Bluey. It’s just, if you’ve got grandkids, watch Bluey. It’s just. It’s wonderful. It’s wonderful. I love it.

James Boyle:
[00:33:03 – 00:33:09]
I was with some family last weekend who have young kids and it was Bluey everywhere. I mean, you couldn’t get away from it.

Richard Taylor:
[00:33:09 – 00:33:17]
No. Really is so different to anything else that’s out there, which is strange. It’s one of those things where, you know when someone comes and does something this, you’re like, why isn’t everything like this?

James Boyle:
[00:33:17 – 00:33:21]
Yeah. Or why did it take us this long to get to this point kind of thing?

Richard Taylor:
[00:33:21 – 00:33:34]
Yeah. There’s one of the. Not the two kids, Bluey and bingo, but their cousin is what? They got this kid called Muffin. And Muffin’s just wild. We’ve got a muffin and I might have been a bit of a muffin. And I just. I feel something when she’s on screen.

James Boyle:
[00:33:34 – 00:33:34]
Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:33:34 – 00:33:36]
It does something to you, this program. I love it.

James Boyle:
[00:33:36 – 00:33:42]
That’s good. Yeah. That shows us an excellent program in writing. Yeah. Good. Well, I hope we brought the mood up a bit there.

Richard Taylor:
[00:33:43 – 00:33:50]
Yeah. Okay, so from grey hairs, ruptured achilles, receding hairlines, Alzheimer’s, we’ll cap it off with Bluey.

James Boyle:
[00:33:50 – 00:33:51]
Bluey.

Richard Taylor:
[00:33:51 – 00:33:52]
Good place to end.

James Boyle:
[00:33:52 – 00:33:56]
That might be a recurring segment for us. What’s Bluey up to these days?

Richard Taylor:
[00:33:56 – 00:33:58]
Yeah. Okay. I thought you were like, where’s your hairline now, Rich?

James Boyle:
[00:33:58 – 00:34:02]
Oh, yeah. Well, we could track that. Anyone watching the YouTube?

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:02 – 00:34:05]
I’m looking forward to seeing this. Great. Yeah, you’re great.

James Boyle:
[00:34:05 – 00:34:09]
Yeah, it’s coming in the nice skunk tail right in the front there.

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:09 – 00:34:11]
I can’t see it, but I’m going to keep an eye out now.

James Boyle:
[00:34:11 – 00:34:16]
Yeah. I may have to start doing the touch of gray just to get the gray in the side so it balances out.

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:18 – 00:34:20]
Well, I’m going to be keeping an eye out for that.

James Boyle:
[00:34:20 – 00:34:20]
Yeah. Yeah.

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:21 – 00:34:22]
All right, my man. Thank you.

James Boyle:
[00:34:22 – 00:34:25]
Yes. Good to catch up. Glad to hear you’re on the mend.

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:26 – 00:34:26]
Indeed.

James Boyle:
[00:34:27 – 00:34:28]
Absolutely. Thanks all for listening.

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:28 – 00:34:45]
Okay. And we’ll just say to anyone, if you have any questions or queries, if you want us to talk about anything, be it UK, expat related, investment related, you know where to find us. Facebook, email, LinkedIn, wherever it may be. If you have something you want us to cover on this, we will do. So please just holler.

James Boyle:
[00:34:46 – 00:34:56]
Absolutely. You’ll hear this in the intro. We are getting a lot of people who are finding us through the podcast first. Port of call can always be www.plantfirstwealth.com too. That has a ton of content out there for you.

Richard Taylor:
[00:34:56 – 00:34:59]
Yeah. All right. Look forward to hearing from you. All right, mate, thanks James.

James Boyle:
[00:34:59 – 00:35:00]
Talk soon.

Richard Taylor:
[00:35:02 – 00:36:06]
All right, folks, that’s another episode of we’re the Brits in America under our belts. Thank you for listening. I appreciate it and I appreciate you. If you’re enjoying the show and would like to support the mission, which is to help Brits thrive in America, I’d ask you to subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen and also consider leaving a rating and a review. This stuff really does matter. Please help us get this information to the people who need it. That is your fellow Brits living in America. Just a quick reminder that this show is brought to you by plan first wealth. We are a us based US UK cross border financial planning and wealth management firm and we help successful British expatriates living across the US to make the most of their opportunity and ultimately to retire Appiah. So if you’re a British expat living in America and you’d like to know more about what we do for people like you, you can find us at our website, planfirstwealth.com. or you can look me up on LinkedIn. Do get in touch. We’d love to hear from you. As always, thank you to Sam Nash and the podcast guys for their help producing this episode and the entire show. See you next time.