Bull Market or AI Bubble? How to Invest When Hype Meets Reality | From the Trenches

Is the AI revolution the next dot-com boom-or the start of something even bigger? From tech valuations that seem sky-high to investors leveraging risk assets at record levels, Richard Taylor and James Boyle explore whether this moment mirrors past cycles of transformational technology, over investment, and inevitable correction-from railways to electricity to the internet.

Richard and James compare today’s “AI megatrend” with historical booms and discuss the key differences this time around, including the profitability of the companies leading it. They also outline practical steps for investors-especially those at or near retirement weather potential volatility and avoid emotional, short-term decisions.

In this episode, they discuss:

• Whether the current market surge signals a bubble or a paradigm shift.
• What history’s great investment manias teach us about the AI boom.
• How to distinguish long-term investing from short-term speculation.
• The importance of asset allocation, diversification, and “sequence of returns” planning.
• Why investor psychology-not just market fundamentals-drives crashes.

 

More about We’re The Brits In America:

With the right financial advice, landmines that threaten expat wealth can be avoided. Often encountered by U.S.-connected expats, these financial landmines are more numerous, more hazardous, and less understood than almost anywhere else in the world. As a result, non-cross border professionals, wealth advisors, and even international advisors are often unaware of them. But don’t worry, We’re The Brits In America has you covered.

We’re The Brits In America is dedicated to helping ambitious U.S.-connected expats and immigrants navigate those challenges — and thrive. Whether you’ve moved to the U.S. for opportunity, or are an American seeking adventure and growth abroad, our job is to equip you with the tools and insights you need to succeed.

If you’re enjoying the show, please consider leaving a 5 star rating and review to help the mission, which is to help expats and immigrants thrive in America. Visit planfirstwealth.com to learn more about our services and connect with Richard Taylor on LinkedIn.

We’re the Brits in America is affiliated with Plan First Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Plan First Wealth.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Plan First Wealth does not provide any tax and/or legal advice and strongly recommends that listeners seek their own advice in these areas.

About Richard

Richard Taylor is a British expat, dual citizen (UK & US). Originally from Bolton, he now lives in Greenwich, CT, where Plan First Wealth has its head office.

As the firm’s leader, Richard launched Taylor & Taylor, now Plan First Wealth, and continues to fuel the firm’s growth. Richard is a Chartered Financial Planner (UK – CII) in addition to holding the IMC (CFA UK) and Series 65 (US – FINRA).

Connect with Richard on LinkedIn

TRANSCRIPT:

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:00:13 – 00:01:21]
Welcome to the we’re the Brits in America podcast, a Plan first wealth podcast dedicated to helping ambitious expatriates and first generation immigrants thrive in America. I’m your host, Richard Taylor and Plan first wealth is the business I founded and run today. And we work with successful American and international families living across the US Helping them to make the most of their opportunity living and working in America. But first, a quick disclaimer. While Plan First Wealth LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor, the views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Plan First Wealth. Information presented is for educational purposes only. Now, if you aren’t already receiving our regular emails, please go to our website, planfirstwealth.com and sign up there. It’s free and you’ll then be notified every time we drop a new episode and so much more. Okay, let’s get back to this week’s show. Welcome back, everybody, to another episode of from the Trenches. This is the show where myself and my colleague James Boyle bring you behind the scenes at Plan First World as we’re building this business and working with our clients. Hi, James.

James Boyle:
[00:01:22 – 00:01:23]
How’s it going? Richard?

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:01:23 – 00:01:58]
My three year old has entered the very, very big feelings stage. Yeah. In the last few days, I mean, I, I do have officially the loudest three year old on the planet. But he has now entered that phase where he will just have the biggest meltdown. And bear in mind we’re talking like 6:15am here. I mean, this is like you’ve just woken up and he asks my wife if he can go on an airplane, which is, he asks multiple times a day right now. Because we are going on an airplane on Monday. She said, yeah, but on Monday. And oh, because he wasn’t going on an airplane today, he kicked.

James Boyle:
[00:01:59 – 00:01:59]
Yeah.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:01:59 – 00:02:12]
And that was, that was just one of many in the first hour. So it is. I forgot about this stage, to be honest with you. And it’s wild. You just, at any moment, the house just completely blows up over the most random things.

James Boyle:
[00:02:12 – 00:02:20]
It’s, it’s been a long time since I was three, but I have the exact same meltdowns with my wife. So I can understand where he’s going from.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:02:25 – 00:02:52]
Right, so we are going to talk today about bubbles. Specifically, are we in a bubble? And we are going to have this conversation because it’s all anyone is talking about. It’s on the news, it’s on every economic SL investment podcast I listen to and it’s in every client conversation and prospective client conversation we are having. So we are going to address it in this podcast. So, James, are in a bubble? What should we do about it?

James Boyle:
[00:02:54 – 00:03:00]
Are we in a bubble? Two part question, possibly. Is that a satisfying answer for our listeners?

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:03:00 – 00:03:04]
No. I mean, I think it’s as good an answer as you possibly can give.

James Boyle:
[00:03:05 – 00:03:56]
I think if anyone had a definitive answer to that, first of all, let me borrow the crystal ball. Right? And second of all, they’re probably doing something other than recording a podcast, probably sitting on a beach somewhere. But I think there’s nuance there. Right? Is also, if we’re in a bubble, where are we in that bubble? Right? These are answers that we will only have if we are after the fact. Which doesn’t exactly help you from an investing point of view. I think we’re going to have to make a distinction here between investing what we refer to as investing. Right. Long term, 10, 20, 30 plus years as part of a financial plan. Can I live the lifestyle I’d like to live in retirement versus pure and utter speculation. And that is trading. Yes.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:03:56 – 00:05:05]
Yeah, dude. Let’s back up a second here though and just give some context. What are we even talking about? Right? We are talking about the fact that the stock market and other speculative assets are booming. We are talking about the fact that the, the price earnings ratio, the, the cost, essentially the price to buy into some of these high profile companies is at an, not an all time high, but a historic, you know, historically high level. We are talking about the fact that some of these companies have what seem to be crazy valuations. We are talking about the fact that regular investors are leveraging up, buying speculative assets and using leverage to buy speculative assets a lot. 20, 21. So you have the price of everything being high. You have deal making, which we’ll talk about in a second. And then you have people just, everyone wants risk assets right now, risk controls be damned, give me more leverage up. Which historically is a bad sign for the near future. And there are, it’s AI, right?

James Boyle:
[00:05:05 – 00:05:08]
So, so yeah, we’re talking around it, right?

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:05:08 – 00:05:43]
But AI is driving this boom. It’s a transfer or potentially transformational technology. It’s come out of nowhere in the last three years and the investment arguably over investment into AI is fueling a lot of this. And the parallels with the 90s, the tech boom of the 90s and earlier booms that resulted from transformational technology is stark. And it’s causing everyone to make these comparisons and wonder when and if it’s going to blow up for us.

James Boyle:
[00:05:43 – 00:06:04]
When does the music stop, as it must do eventually. Right? It’s easy to predict a bear market or a recession. It’s timing it that’s difficult. Right. And when I say easy predict, we know that eventually one will come around, as it always does. But that’s a big difference between next month or six months or 18 months or five years from now.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:06:04 – 00:06:41]
Well, the question is, are we in 1997 when it had two or three years after runner up 20, 30% or are we in 1999 and the lights are about to go out? And the reason I think it’s suddenly gone into like fever pitch of everyone really caught in the bubble. A lot of circular deals are being announced now. So a lot of these big AI companies and tech companies are announcing deals with each other and they sound fantastic and exciting and all, and these big billions, even trillions of dollars are quoted. But the problem is when one table leg gets kicked out, they all collapse. And that’s what’s really spooked people.

James Boyle:
[00:06:41 – 00:07:20]
I think the example, I think you might be referring to this open AI with Nvidia, Broadcom, amd, they announced this trillion doll data center capacity investment and every one of those names increases and increases pretty aggressively. Right. The price goes upward. That is worrying because it’s this circular motion now again trying to predict is. There’s that term irrational exuberance. Right. And forgive me for, for not knowing where that quote comes from. It might be Greenspan, but it is Greenspan. Yeah, we’re still seeing the earnings underlying these companies continue to outperform.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:07:20 – 00:08:29]
Right. You’ve hit on a massive differentiator. The obvious parallel and the most recent one is the Internet boom and crash of the late 90s, early 2000s. Go back 100 years from now and you have electricity of the 20s and then 30s. Go back before that you had the railroads and all these were transformational technologies. But all of them initially suffered from massive over investment that resulted in a collapse, slash hangover and then a long drawn out recovery. But ultimately all the, the transformations that were predicted and more were realized. It’s just, it just seems to be a feature of human nature. Transformational technology over investment crash. But then it’s all realized over the next 10, 20, 30 plus years. Right. And I think that. I think AI will fit that bill. I think AI is transformational. I think in the arms race we have at the moment, companies are going to overinvest like they did for the railways in the 1870s, for electricity in the 1920s, for tech stocks in the 90s. But ultimately a lot of it will come true and probably even more.

James Boyle:
[00:08:29 – 00:08:30]
Yep.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:08:30 – 00:09:26]
The big difference, though, is the companies driving this boom. This time, they are wildly profitable. Like in the 90s, part of the problem was none of them were. Now, don’t get me wrong, there are companies going public now, and there are companies out there who are clearly, like, I’m gonna say the fraudulent, maybe not legally fraudulent, but it’s just a farce. They’re just trying to piggyback on the back of this and that. That is, yeah, vapor. That is 90s esque. But the. The main companies that are driving this, the Magnificent Seven or the top 10 companies, whatever it is now, they are money printing machines in a way that just. That wasn’t the case before. So it’s not like this boom is not just built on sand. These companies have a real foundation, a bedrock. So I do think it’s different for that reason.

James Boyle:
[00:09:27 – 00:10:23]
I agree. And the flip side of that for the worried investor, I’m sure, is that we’re in the middle of earnings seasons right now, or it’s just getting started, really. For Q3, expectations for these companies are sky high. Thus far, they’ve been matching them. Right. What will happen eventually is that if. If there is an unfolding, right. If. If those expectations continue to skyrocket and they aren’t eventually met, the worry is that then, you know, going back to this idea of the music stopping, then it all falls back to earth. But. But as it stands, you know, they’re continuing to perform. I just saw. Is it. Is it tsmc, that’s the Taiwanese company that produces chips for Nvidia. Revenue growth in Q3, up 24%, profits up 40%. And in their words, in. In the guidance, they said the AI mega trend is strengthening.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:10:23 – 00:10:26]
I like that. Mega Megatrend.

James Boyle:
[00:10:26 – 00:10:27]
Yeah, I like that.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:10:27 – 00:10:29]
Right? It’s AI Megatrend.

James Boyle:
[00:10:29 – 00:10:50]
You know, I’ll comment on something as well, because in some ways I think it’s heartening that, that people are concerned about this, that we’re seeing worry, we’re seeing uncertainty, we’re seeing anxiety. That you’ll hear this term wall of worry. Right when we’re in the middle of a bull market and there’s still this. There’s this angst in the investing.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:10:50 – 00:10:54]
We’re in a bull market, people. Can we not just enjoy it?

James Boyle:
[00:10:54 – 00:11:04]
No, we never enjoy it. If we’re 30% up, we’re nervous it’s going to crash. If we’re 30% down, we’re nervous it’s going to get worse. Right. That’s kind of the box, kind of what we want.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:11:04 – 00:11:17]
We’re in this for mega bull markets. We know the party stops at some point, but let’s get us. We’ll talk about what to do in a second, but let’s setup to weather the storm when it arrives. In the meantime, enjoy it. Ride the wave.

James Boyle:
[00:11:17 – 00:11:42]
Yeah, I’m sure we’ll touch on the S and P, but we’re back to back years, 20 plus percent. Right. In 23 and 24 we’re up something like 13 and a half percent this year. So this is a really strong bull market. People tend to discount it or like I say, feel anxious. But right now the party’s still going. Right. Make hay when the sun shines, so to speak.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:11:43 – 00:12:32]
Of concern though as well is not just well so to our point before, these are these the mostly, mostly these are real companies with, with fantastically well run companies with staggering profits. If there has been an over exuberance, if there has been an over investment and there is a hangover from this, I think the encouraging side of that is it shouldn’t be 2000, 2001 esque or 1930s esque or whatever. It should be more muted because yes, they will presumably fall at some point, but it shouldn’t be like the 94 that we had for Amazon back in the early 90s. Right. And that was a real company that came good because at that point I don’t think Amazon was making much money. So I hope, I think that should dampen any resulting downturn when we have one.

James Boyle:
[00:12:32 – 00:13:00]
I tend to agree. But it could happen, right? We want to make sure. Yeah, of course. And I know we’re going to get to this, but be prepared if you were. We have these conversations. If you’re in a portfolio of 100% equity and you’re at or near retirement, it might be worth. I don’t mean to spoil our next 10 minute conversation but revisiting your risk tolerance, revisiting what your plan is, should there be a 20, 30, 40% correction? Because we know they’ve happened in the past, we’re certain they’ll happen in the future, it’s just question of when.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:13:00 – 00:14:11]
Well, I mean of another concern though is not just that These companies can, you know, a lot of value can get, can evaporate overnight. It’s that the particularly the American consumer now or the American, you know, wealth inequality has got so out of control in America that wealth is concentrated in so few hands. And the American economy is driven so much by consumption, by consumer spending. A lot of that can also evaporate overnight. If, if there’s a stock market jitter and people’s portfolios falls, that is called the wealth effect where people spend because they feel wealthier. Well, they could then stop a lot their discretionary spending. That then leads into a spiral. And that’s the thing here. A lot of the fluctuations in the market in the short term, in the immediate term are not necessarily driven by fundamentals, they’re driven by sentiment. So if everyone panics, the market can and will crash by far more than the fundamentals than it they deserve to based on the fundamentals. And that’s that, that is a lot of the short term movements in the market is sentiment. It’s people reacting to companies rather than what companies actually and humans, we tend to overreact and we over invest, overconfident, we overly panic and do it on the other way as well. So that’s something that I think could hurt the US economy.

James Boyle:
[00:14:12 – 00:14:40]
That is a real concern, right. That I think in part is AI currently offsetting macroeconomic weakness underlying the economy. And then again, if the music stops, so to speak, is that macroeconomic weakness going to take front stage and really start to be part of the narrative, so to speak, heading into the end of the year and then into 2026. And again, no one can say for sure, right?

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:14:41 – 00:15:14]
What should people do about it? Right. And let’s talk about, let’s put this in context because I do think it’s different. We work with people who are relatively near to or in retirement. So let’s mainly focus on those sorts of people. Because if you are younger and you’re in wealth accumulation, I’m not sure some of the crazy speculation we’re seeing is wise because you can wipe yourself out. But largely you can be a bit immune from this. For example, I am 100 equities. I am not going to change that.

James Boyle:
[00:15:14 – 00:15:15]
So am I.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:15:15 – 00:16:34]
Probably goes without saying, yeah, I’m not going to change. I’m 100 invested in the stock market, global stock market, diversified. I’m not taking individual bets on companies. I don’t do that and I have absolutely zero intention of changing that. In fact, if anything, I’ll add to it, continue to add to it constantly adding to it in fact. But for someone who is closer to or even in retirement, what should they be doing? I’m sure this is obvious to people but when you are at that point, you’re no longer investing to get rich. You’re mainly investing to maintain your lifestyle and not get poor. And that is really different. And there’s two ways you can get poor, right? You can. You can get poor very quickly by making some bad investments that go south very quickly or you can get poor very slowly through not investing through not participating in the stock market. And over 20 or 30 years inflation will erode your life savings and leave you and for most people create a very problematic scenario. Now the getting poor very quickly through bad investments that blow up, that is what people live in fear of is actually the. The through not investing and inflation eating away that it’s much more pernicious because this is like a silent killer.

James Boyle:
[00:16:39 – 00:17:25]
Much more difficult to grasp is probably not the right word, right? Because I think intellectually investors can understand that. But emotionally the immediate fear of volatility or downturns is so much more potent than that long term erosion decay in your purchasing power. And trying to get an investor or a client or someone we work with to see that and really feel that can be difficult for valid reasons. Right. Again, we are emotional creatures. At the end of the day we rely on our own brains, our psychology, our warning signals, whatever that may be. But that is real risk. In a portfolio if you are underinvested, you are taking on risk. It’s a different form of risk, right? It’s purchasing power risk, it’s inflation risk. But it needs to be addressed in a long term plan.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:17:26 – 00:19:06]
So I just want to talk about. I’ve seen two clients this week who are in retirement. Both of them have recently started retirement actually. So you know the whole sequence of returned risk which is the most dangerous at the beginning of retirement, the kind of in that window now. And they are both aware of what’s going on around. And we talked about it like what should we do if anything and spoiler alert, nothing. But I wanted to. So these are two retired clients and we’re also talking, we’re talking several million dollars each here. Not like f you money but. But real money. These are successful clients who have had a really good life and continue to live a really good life. And that cost a bit of money. And one of them is in a 60:40 portfolio. 60% equities company volatile real companies, these assets that could fall off a cliff. And 40% fixed income, low risk. And the other One is in 70, 30. And this is dictated by things like their risk profile, my conversations, the financial plan that we’ve built for them. And also one has one and a half years worth of cash on top of this and the other one has a year’s worth of cash. Right. So they are completely ready for this. You and I are 100% equities, right. We are prepared to weather a 50% correction if one comes along because we know over the next 50 years that portfolio is going to deliver way more for us. Right. That would completely freak out a client in this position because they are both taking withdrawals from their portfolio monthly. And then you gotta be really careful because if you’re taking from a portfolio when it’s down, you might drain it to a point where it can never recover. That’s the thing that we have to avoid at all costs.

James Boyle:
[00:19:07 – 00:19:40]
Sequence of returns, Right? I just want to put a pin in that because to describe that for anyone who isn’t familiar with that term, that is essentially at or right after retirement, right? When, when your portfolio, so to speak, is at its most vulnerable, if in that first, call it a five year term, right. Window, so to speak, the markets do have a correction or you do have substandard returns for those first few years and you’re taking withdrawals. Richard, to your point, that can lead to that spiraling down of value in the, in the portfolio from which it’s very difficult to dig your way out of.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:19:41 – 00:21:49]
We’ve built this with that in mind. And look, there’s two ways you can go about this, right? You can approach this like I’ve got a crystal ball, or I might not have a crystal ball, but someone I’m going to pay over here has a crystal ball. And they’re going to, they’re going to preempt all this and predict it and move me around. And that’s one way we believe that setting fire to money, maybe someone gets something right once. And that’s almost the most dangerous thing that can happen because anything, they’ve got these supernatural powers or someone they, they’re paying has got supernatural powers. And these people, every crisis there’s always someone who called it. And then what happens is these people end up getting egg on their face because they call every crisis that doesn’t materialize in the future so that we believe that’s how you set fire to money or you do the approach we’ve done, where you get the asset location right up front, risk versus low risk and cash and Then you ride out any storm by having 40% or 30% fixed income, by having a year, a year and a half’s worth of cash, you are foregoing returns over your lifetime. But you are also putting yourself in a position where you can weather these storms, even the worst of storms. It means that if we’re in 1997, we’ve got two or three more year gangbuster years. You’re exposed to it, you’re going to grow with it. When the wheels come off, you will have a huge buffer of fixed income to fall back on. You will have a year or year and a half’s worth of cash. So you can actually stop withdrawals from your portfolio, allow it to recover. And then you layer on things like this, like automated rebalancing. So we’re continuously rebalancing back to target. So if the market flies up, you’re never overexposed for when the day comes that it’s going to go down it on the way down, you continue rebalancing back to your agreed asset allocation. And when it rips back up, you should rip back up with it. Things like tax loss harvesting another tool where if you’re in a brokerage account, you can take advantage of a correction when it comes to reduce your future taxes. There’s loads we can do, but we fundamentally believe that this is, this is right. You know, when the storm’s coming and you go outside and you, I’m not much of a camper, but you’re band down the hatches and you, you make sure your tent is, I don’t know, I’m losing this one insecure hammer into the ground either.

James Boyle:
[00:21:49 – 00:23:12]
But yeah, yeah, yeah. So I think you’re touching on a really important point there. Right. Because the idea of getting the asset allocation right up front, having also, I believe, a document spelling out what your investment policy is. I mean, for our clients, we literally call it an investment policy statement, ips, a reminder that codifies if and when these inevitable downturn happens, what do I do, how do I react? And very often the answer to that almost always is going to be stick to your investment plan and ride out the storm. Now we can do that. That is feasible as a strategy long term because of these techniques that we’re employing alongside that portfolio construction. Right. So diversifying, global diversification, not being overexposed to one region or sector, to your point, automatic rebalancing, this is such a key piece that I think sometimes DIY investors struggle with or aren’t sure how to implement it, is a Consistent, disciplined approach to buying low and selling high. Right. Exactly what you want to be doing to make sure you stay within the bounds of your risk tolerance. And you don’t invite the opportunity to, after a 30% correction, say I’m panicking and going all to gold, or I’m panicking and putting it under the mattress, which is the ultimate mistake for the long investor.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:23:12 – 00:24:11]
Yeah. The way, the way you get through this is, is through what you do now. And that’s not getting carried away and buying into the speculative mania. And it’s through getting your asset allocation, your cash hold, cash holding. Correct. And you’re mentally set for this because these two clients, I, I reminded them things are going to feel different in retirement. You’ve had 40 years of like building your savings but getting paid a regular income from your job. So when you, when your assets go up and down, it feels, but when it goes down, it feels bad. But it doesn’t matter because you pay for your life through your income, through your job. You don’t have that income from a job anymore. And I know you’re checking these more than you should and you’re going to feel it more and that’s okay. And I’m going to remind you of that when we have this conversation. It’s coming. I don’t know whether it’s next year, the year after, the year after, or five years from now, but it’s coming and it will happen. I’ve seen it many times. And we will, we’ll, we’ll get through this, but you’re going to be fine. We’ve run the numbers. We’ve got confidence in the portfolio, we’ve got confidence in the plan. You’re good.

James Boyle:
[00:24:11 – 00:24:23]
That’s not going to be the only correction or bear market you experience in a retirement. I mean, we’re talking 30 plus year time horizons. There are going to be multiple times, multiple different market environments that you will have to.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:24:24 – 00:24:33]
I just can’t help but think we’ve got a recession coming. It’s been so long since we had a proper recession. I just, you got to think, you got to think it’s, it’s, it’s somewhere.

James Boyle:
[00:24:33 – 00:24:37]
In the near future eventually. Right? Yeah, it will happen. It will absolutely happen.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:24:37 – 00:25:24]
Yeah. And then when you layer on market with recession, that’s what that, that is a, that’s a, that’s when people feel really low. You know, previously. Yeah, 20. I mean, I know we technically had a correction from COVID Sorry, a recession from CO. Didn’t really. And then 20, 22, we had a market correction but no recession. When you layer on both, I think that starts to feel really, I think that that really hurts. Look, in our last couple of minutes, let’s just talk about gold because gold’s going bananas. When you look at the, the money you could have made from gold over. I don’t have the numbers to hand but the. If you’d invested in gold 40 years ago versus the S P500, you’d be devastated now because gold’s done Nothing. The S P500 has returned many, many multiples of itself. I think gold right now has turned into a trade.

James Boyle:
[00:25:24 – 00:25:25]
Speculative.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:25:25 – 00:26:05]
Right, A speculative trade. Yeah. People. I think central bank started buying and then it started getting into the news and then this and then mix that with everyone speculating about a boom and now it’s just become, it’s become a trade and that. To your point earlier in the show, we are investing for 30 years which means we don’t have to think about trading. And if you conflate trading with. I, I honestly think conflating trading with investing is one of the most dangerous things that can happen to someone. And we are exclusively, exclusively investing for the long term, 30 years plus and trading is make. Trying to make money in the short term. And I think gold right now has become a speculative trade.

James Boyle:
[00:26:07 – 00:26:35]
I would agree. And we can get into the mechanics of it. It’s so tied to the value of the dollar. When the dollar is debased, as we’ve seen this year down 10%, gold is going to increase because it’s a hedge against currency uncertainty. It’s a hedge against anxiety about the state of the world, the economy. But trying to incorporate that kind of trading into a long term investment plan, you. Is not sustainable.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:26:35 – 00:26:35]
Right.

James Boyle:
[00:26:35 – 00:26:58]
You might get lucky once or twice. But is that a 30 plus year plan? I’m not sure. Not saying it has no place. Right. We do have clients who hold a small amount for diversification and if that helps you sleep at night, then I don’t see anything wrong with it. But don’t try to trade, don’t try to speculate. I think is the critical piece here.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:26:58 – 00:29:09]
So James, as we summarize, I think we both agree there’s something on the horizon. How far away or how close, how bad, all that is unknowable. But there’s something on the horizon. But then that’s so, so saying nothing because there’s always something on the horizon. But just with we are all seeing the parallels from the late 90s and no one wants to get caught out but the, the truth is, if you’re young, get invested, stay invested. Don’t do anything stupid. If you’re. You’re older and you’re at or near retirement, now is the time to get your house in order and have the strategy in place. Get your house in order now and have the strategy that you can written that you can fall back on. Because when, when, when it all goes to. When it all goes to and everyone’s losing the head, you want to be able to. To. To fall back on something and say, we, this is what we agreed in the good times. Let’s keep our wits about us. This is what we’re going to do. And there’s loads that you can do. There is loads that you can do. I have zero. I have. You know what the irony is? I have zero worries about our client portfolios. The only thing I worry about is our clients. Yeah, it’s because we don’t manage. It’s not managing money. That’s. It’s managing people. And when people start freaking out, they make really bad decisions, and that’s what we have to deliver as we just wrap up here. The other thing I want to warn people is I also worry that this is when people become prey to salespeople selling guarantees and premises and, and ways to ameliorate volatility. Guys, the only way to ameliorate volatility, the only way to, to reduce volatility is by reducing your return, even if you don’t see it. That is, there is just no such thing as a free lunch. And there are some great products out there for. You know, I’m thinking of annuities and insurance here for. If anyone’s wondering what I’m talking about, there are some really good ones. Unfortunately, we see way more of the bad ones that have just been sold. A promise to help make risk evaporate. And it’s never pretty.

James Boyle:
[00:29:10 – 00:29:19]
It is. It is a feast out there for emotional commission products being sold. I’m sure because uncertainty is high right now. You just want to be careful.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:29:20 – 00:29:25]
Yeah, please be careful, folks. All right, let’s. We should wrap up that. Should we do a pick and mix?

James Boyle:
[00:29:26 – 00:29:27]
Yeah, let’s do a pick and mix. A couple minutes.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:29:27 – 00:29:28]
Okay.

James Boyle:
[00:29:28 – 00:30:19]
So I got a movie, movie called One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson, director of There Will Be Blood. The master, Boogie Nights, you’ll have known him. Unbelievable film. Probably one of my favorites of the last few years, maybe last decade. Incredible theatrical experience. I don’t know how many people are seeing it. They tend to be smaller artists House flicks, although this one had a pretty healthy budget. But if you are getting career best performances from actors like Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and especially Benicio del Toro, these are people who’ve been working for 40 or 50 years in Hollywood. It is something to behold. I don’t want to. I won’t spoil it. I went into it basically completely blind. I would recommend everyone watching or listening to this to go ahead and check that out. One battle after another. It was just unbelievable.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:30:20 – 00:30:24]
Very good, Joe. Mark Marin, I think his name is Mark Moron.

James Boyle:
[00:30:24 – 00:30:25]
Yeah.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:30:25 – 00:31:22]
He has a podcast called Mark Marin. Wtf? I don’t think I’ve ever actually listened to the podcast, although I’m familiar with him. He’s just done his last ever podcast, like after 1600 episodes or something and he had Obama back on. So I listened to it because I wanted to be soothed by President Obama again. And you know what? It really, what? It just has left me really wistful for a very, very time in America. The America that I really remember. Boy, has it, has it changed. And it was just, it was just great to hear President Obama speaking. Just remembered the guy has such gravitas, such gravitas that left me really wistful for, for a time. So I, if anyone feels similarly that pines for those that period in time, maybe give that podcast listen. It’s, it’s Mark Maron. Wtf? It’s his last ever episode and it was hour conversation with President Barack Obama.

James Boyle:
[00:31:23 – 00:32:03]
Marin is probably instrumental in helping shape podcasts as a, as a viable platform as well. So somewhat ironic that, that we’re, we’re, you know, we’re talking about this on a podcast. Yeah, that’s excellent. I’ll have to, I have to get that and listen. Okay, good, good. Well, hopefully if you’re out there, you’re not panicking too much. Obviously we want this to be dynamic, interactive. We, we say this every time. Follow us wherever you find po. Email us if you have questions, richardfirstwealth.com or jamesfirstwealth.com we’re always happy to dive in and talk about the discussions that we have week in, week out and things that are top of mind.

Richard Taylor, Founder of Plan First Wealth:
[00:32:04 – 00:32:06]
Okay, Jolly good. Thanks, James. See you soon.

James Boyle:
[00:32:06 – 00:32:08]
Thanks everyone for listening.